16th Aug,2024

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EUR/USD and USD/JPY – Latest Sentiment Analysis

EUR/USD Sentiment Analysis

 

• 32.46% of traders are net-long
• The ratio of short to long traders is 2.08 to 1

 

• Net-long traders: Up 9.28% from yesterday, down 17.58% from last week
• Net-short traders: Down 10.10% from yesterday, up 15.36% from last week

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• The analysis takes a contrarian view to crowd sentiment
• The net-short position suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise

 

• Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short than last week
• This combination results in a mixed EUR / USD trading bias

The analysis suggests that while there’s been some recent shift towards long positions, the overall sentiment remains predominantly short. This contrarian approach implies that the EUR/USD might continue to strengthen, despite the majority of traders betting against it. However, the mixed signals from different timeframes (daily vs weekly changes) lead to an overall mixed trading bias.

USD/JPY Sentiment Analysis

 

• 42.64% of traders are net-long
• The ratio of short to long traders is 1.35 to 1

 

• Net-long traders: Down 14.49% from yesterday, down 11.96% from last week
• Net-short traders: Up 10.17% from yesterday, up 10.94% from last week

 

• The analysis takes a contrarian view to crowd sentiment
• The net-short position suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise

 

• Traders are further net-short compared to both yesterday and last week

This data shows a significant shift towards short positions in USD/ JPY over both daily and weekly timeframes. The percentage of net-long traders has decreased, while net-short traders have increased. Using the contrarian approach, this growing bearish sentiment among retail traders is interpreted as a bullish signal for USD/JPY. The analysis suggests that despite more traders betting against the currency pair, its price may actually continue to rise.

The consistent movement towards short positions across both timeframes (daily and weekly) provides a clearer signal compared to the previous EUR/USD data, which showed mixed trends.

16th Aug，2024

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​As Nvidia gets ready to announce its earnings for the second quarter of 2024, investors want to know if the darling of US chip stocks can regain recently lost ground.

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​Nvidia will release its Q2 results on 28 August 2024

​Revenue of $28,544 billion: +211.31% year-on-year (YoY)

​Q2 earnings per share of $0.64 expected

​Consensus of analysts ‘buy’ rating on the stock

​When will Nvidia share its latest earnings information?

​Nvidia will reveal its Q2 financial results after the stock market closes on Wednesday, 28 August 2024.

 

​LSEG Data & Analytics data shows a consensus analyst rating of ‘buy’ for Nvidia – 19 strong buy, 33 buy and 5 hold (as of 15 August 2024).

 

​Heading into Nvidia’s Q2 earnings results, expectations are high for the graphics chip maker thanks to its leadership position in several key secular growth markets.

​Over the past year, Nvidia has seen tremendous demand growth across its various end markets, led by data centres and gaming. In data centres, adoption of AI and machine learning has fuelled robust sales of Nvidia’s specialized GPUs and networking products. The company has also benefited as more enterprises move workloads to the cloud. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s gaming segment continues to see strong tailwinds thanks to the rise of eSports, game streaming services, and steady launches of blockbuster titles optimized for Nvidia hardware.

​Nvidia’s data centre segment, which includes sales of GPUs, networking gear, and AI software, is projected to increase further as major hyperscale customers like Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Alphabet GCP are rapidly adopting Nvidia chips to power AI workloads.

​Ongoing strong demand for the latest Nvidia GPUs for gaming and creative applications is expected to remain a key catalyst in revenue growth.

​Nvidia’s automotive computing platforms are being adopted by more electric and autonomous vehicle makers, creating further demand for the company’s chips. Additionally, the company’s Omniverse 3D simulation platform over the past year saw triple-digit customer growth, signalling future enterprise software upside.

 

​Nvidia faces some potential headwinds that could impact the upcoming earnings report such as supply chain constraints which may limit the upside. Though improving, foundry and component shortages could restrict Nvidia from fully meeting elevated demand. Any indication that supply issues are not abating could disappoint investors.

​Demand slowdown in the PC market due to tough macroeconomic conditions may weaken graphics segment performance. This would dampen overall earnings growth.

​Potential macroeconomic uncertainty may curb business spending should economic conditions deteriorate. This would have an outsized impact on Nvidia’s data centre and enterprise segments.

​Increasing competition from the likes of AMD and Intel, who have also heavily been investing in AI-focused chips, and big tech and automotive companies developing their own AI chips could potentially reduce demand for Nvidia’s offerings.

​Despite these risks, Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish on Nvidia stock heading into the Q2 earnings result. Investors are focused on Nvidia’s long-term potential in AI, high-performance computing, autonomous vehicles, and the metaverse. Execution against these opportunities is likely to drive share price momentum post-earnings.

​

​The Nvidia share price, up over 145% year-to-date despite its June-to-August 35% drop, is flirting with its $118.04-to-$120.16 resistance zone, made up of the late June low and early August high.

​Were it to be exceeded on a weekly chart closing basis on Friday, the way would be open for its June record high at $140.76 to be back in sight.

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​This bullish view will remain intact while the early August low at $90.69 holds ona weekly chart closing basis.

​For a medium-term top to be formed, the Nvidia share price would have to fall through its $90.69 early August low, in which case a further decline to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $83.14 and the April trough at $75.61 may be on the cards.

 

​A rise and daily chart close above the 23 July high at $124.69 would likely lead to a continuation of the medium-term uptrend.

Date：16th Aug，2024

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Gold, Silver Technical Analysis

• Gold attempts to reach a new high but faces an immediate test
• Silver finds temporary support at key Fibonacci level as bulls attempt to drag prices higher

Gold Attempts to Reach New High but Faces an Immediate Test

Gold prices have recovered from last week’s significant volatility spike as the gold volatility index (GVZ) has come down to levels seen before the panicked move. It must also be said that continued geopolitical uncertainty pertaining to a wider conflict in the Middle East remains a concern, helping to keep gold supported, especially ahead of the weekend.

Additionally, the Fed is said to be gearing up for the rate cutting cycle which is expected to get underway next month after a string of softer US data points suggesting the economy may be more vulnerable than initially thought.

Gold continues to trade above the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the 2020-2022 major decline, headed towards the next key level of resistance of $2,500. The precious metal has received a bullish boost on Friday, after bouncing off the prior high of $2,450 – testing the more recent level of resistance at 2,484 where prior advances have failed.

 

Richard Snow

The daily gold chart helps provide a more granular view of gold’s ascent which has oscillated broadly since the middle of July, using the blue 50-day simple moving average as dynamic support.

The RSI has lifted slightly, appearing set for overbought territory, however, the precious metal has managed to avoid overheating in 2024 apart from a brief moment in July. Resistance lies at the psychological level of $2,500 and very near-term support emerges at $2,450, followed by the 50 SMA at $2,382.

 

Richard Snow

Silver Finds Temporary Support at Key Fibonacci Level as Bulls Attempt to Drag Prices Higher

Silver has traded conversely to gold, managing to selloff since the latter days in May. XAG/ USD topped out above $32, attempting another advance which ultimately fell short near $31.75 and has come off a sizeable amount since then. The metal now attempts to find support at the prior Fibonacci level of $27,40. The Fibonacci retracement relates to the 2021-2022 decline.

 

Richard Snow

The daily silver chart reveals a shorter-term test of trendline resistance. Silver’s recent upward lift was inspired by a bounce off the 200-day SMA and subsequent momentum which has lifted the commodity above the 78.6% Fib level.

A condition for a reassessment of the broader bearish move would require a break above the trendline followed by an immediate test (as support) and subsequent bullish follow through. Until then, the bearish trend move appears constructive and the RSI continues along the midline – revealing neither overbought nor oversold signals.

 

15th Aug,24

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UK GDP, GBP/USD Analysis

• UK GDP for Q2 expanded as expected but June reveals stagnant growth
• Growth trends reveal optimism as the UK enters the rate cutting cycle
• Sterling’s pullback reaches a point of reflection

UK GDP for the Second Quarter as Expected – June Reveals Stagnant Growth

The first look at economic growth in the UK for Q2 printed as expected at 0.6%, quarter on quarter. UK growth has struggled throughout the rate hiking cycle but has shown more recent signs of recovery in the lead up to this month’s Bank of England (BoE) meeting where the monetary policy committee voted to lower interest rates for the first time since March 2022.

 

A stronger showing in Q1 (0.7%) is followed by a similar 0.6% expansion in Q2 according to the preliminary estimate. GDP data is subject to numerous revisions as more data becomes available, meaning the number may change but for now, the economy is showing signs of promise. A better gauge of growth trends, the 3-month average ending in June, proves growth has lifted off stagnant, and even negative, levels. It isn’t all good news as June was a month of stagnant growth (0%) when compared to May as declines in the services sector were offset by strong manufacturing output.

 

Richard Snow

Sterling’s Pullback Reaches a Point of Reflection

GBP/USD has partially recovered after the major selloff in July, with bulls looking for a bounce off trendline support in search of another leg higher. Yesterday’s UK inflation data told a mixed story as inflation in July rose by less than expected. The fact that we’d see a higher print has been well-telegraphed by the bank of England after forecasts revealed inflation would remain above the 2% target for a long time after hitting the significant marker. However, inflation is not expected to spiral out of control but potential surprises to the upside may help keep sterling buoyed – especially at a time when the prospect of a potential 50 basis point cut from the Fed remains a real possibility. Front loading the cutting cycle could weigh heavily on the dollar, to the benefit of GBP / USD .

GBP/USD has risen after bouncing off the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around the former level of support at 1.2685 (May and June 2024). Since then the pair has burst through trendline support, former resistance. Bulls will be looking for the pair to respect the test of support with 1.3000 in sight. Support is clustered around the zone comprising of 1.2800, trendline support, and the 50 SMA.

15th Aug,2024

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Nasdaq 100 still moving higher

​The index has enjoyed an impressive run over the past week, bouncing off the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).​Further gains now target the 19,500 highs from 31 July and 1 August and the 50-day SMA. Beyond this lies the 20,000 level.

​So far there has been no indication of a reversal, though a drop below 18,800 might signal that some near-term weakness is at hand, potentially targeting the 200-day SMA once more, as well as the lows of August around 17,500.

 

​

​Dow is back above 40,000

​The rebound goes on for this index too, having recouped the 40,000 level, and in early trading, it is testing the 40,080 highs from May.

​Additional gains would now take the price on to 41,000 and then 41,382, the latter being the record high. Sellers will need a reversal back below 39,000 to indicate a new test of the early August low around 38,500.

 

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​Nikkei 225 pushes higher

​Having recouped all its losses from the open on 5 August, the index has now recovered the losses from Friday 2 August. This remarkable bounce shows no sign of stopping at present.

​Further gains will target the 200-day SMA at 38,144, once it has closed above the 36,707 level, the low from mid-April.

 

15th Aug,2024

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Gold (XAU/USD) – Repeated Attempts at a Fresh All-Time High, US Retail Sales Weigh

Gold continues to test, and reject, its previous all-time high at $2,485/oz. and a break higher is being pared by a strong US retail sales report

• Gold unable to break higher as resistance holds firm.
• Weekly net-short positions jump.

Gold is coming under pressure after the release of a stronger-than-expected US retail sales report. Expectations of a 50 bp rate cut have been pared back – from 38% to 25% – while expectations of a smaller 25 basis point cut have been boosted from 62% to 75%.

For all high-importance data releases and events, see the

Gold continues to test the mid-July all-time high at $2,484/oz. and is likely to do so again but slightly further out. The daily chart remains technically bullish – short-term higher lows and supportive simple moving averages – with initial support off the 20-dsma at $2,417/oz. followed by $2,400/oz. A break below $2,380/oz. would negate the short-term bullish outlook.

Gold Price Daily Chart

 

Retail trader data shows 50.72% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.03 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 8.89% higher than yesterday and 13.18% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.63% lower than yesterday and

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias.

13th Aug,24

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Euro (EUR/USD) Latest – German Economic Outlook Slumps in August

• German economic sentiment for August slumps.
• Euro steady against the US dollar , EUR/GBP slips.

The economic outlook for Germany is breaking down, according to the latest ZEW survey, showing ‘the strongest decline of the economic expectations over the past two years.’ According to today’s report,

‘It is likely that economic expectations are still affected by high uncertainty, which is driven by ambiguous monetary policy , disappointing business data from the US economy and growing concerns over an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Most recently, this uncertainty expressed itself in turmoil on international stock markets,’ comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach, PhD on the survey results.

 

For all market-moving economic data and events, see the

EUR/USD moved marginally lower against the US dollar but remains in a tight, short-term range. Initial support is seen off last Thursday’s low at 1.0881 and the 50-day sma at 1.0883, while initial resistance at 1.0950.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

 

Retail trader data shows 37.51% of EUR/ USD traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.67 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 2.42% higher than yesterday and 14.11% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.42% lower than yesterday and 2.32% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EUR/USD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

EUR/ GBP fell to a fresh one-week low on a combination of Euro weakness and Sterling strength. Earlier today data showed UK unemployment falling unexpectedly – from 4.4% to 4.2% – dialing back UK rate cut expectations.

 

After making a four-month last week, EUR/GBP has faded lower and is now trading on either side of an old area of importance at 0.8550. Below here 0.8500 comes into focus. Short-term resistance is seen at 0.8580 and 0.8600.

EUR/GBP Daily Chart

14th Aug,24

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UK Headline Inflation rises by Less Than Expected, GBP/USD Eyes US CPI

• UK headline inflation – 2.2% in July vs expectations of 2.3%.
• Cable consolidates above 1.2800, helped by US dollar weakness.
• US inflation data is released at 13:30 UK today.

UK headline inflation CPI) rose in July but at a slower rate than expected. CPI rose by 2.2% in the 12 months to July 2024, up from 2.0% in June 2024. On a monthly basis, CPI fell by 0.2% in July 2024, compared with a fall of 0.4% in July 2023. Core inflation fell from 3.5% to 3.3%, below expectations of 3.4%.

‘The largest upward contribution to the monthly change in both CPIH and CPI annual rates came from housing and household services where prices of gas and electricity fell by less than they did last year; the largest downward contribution came from restaurants and hotels, where prices of hotels fell this year having risen last year,’ according to the ONS. The closely followed CPI all services index rose by 5.2% in July compared to 5.7% in June and 7.4% in July 2023.

For all market-moving economic data and events, see the

UK rate expectations currently show a 45% chance of a second 25 basis point interest rate cut at the September 19th BoE meeting with the central bank seen cutting a total of 50 basis points between now and the end of the year.

The yield on the rate-sensitive UK 2-year gilt fell after the ONS data and is now closing in on the August 5th low at 3.475%. Below here the 2-year gilt yield would be back at levels last seen in April last year.

UK 2-Year Gilt Yield

Cable ( GBP/USD ) is trading comfortably back above 1.2800 today, aided partly by yesterday’s bout of weakness in the US dollar. GBP / USD tested and rejected the 1.2863 to 1.2896 zone yesterday and today with the market waiting for the US inflation data at 13:30 UK today before deciding on the next move for the pair. Short-term support at 1.2800 followed by 1.2787 (50-dsma) with further upside limited at 1.2896.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart

 

Retail trader data shows 42.40% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.36 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 15.32% lower than yesterday and 19.26% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 19.79% higher than yesterday and 36.48% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

14th Aug,24

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US CPI Analysis

• US CPI prints mostly in line with estimates, yearly CPI better than expected
• Disinflation advances slowly but shows little signs of upward pressure
• Market pricing around future rate cuts eased slightly after the meeting

US CPI Prints Mostly in Line with Expectations, Yearly CPI Better than Anticipated

US inflation remains in huge focus as the Fed gears up to cut interest rates in September. Most measures of inflation met expectations but the yearly measure of headline CPI dipped to 2.9% against the expectation of remaining unchanged at 3%.

 

Market probabilities eased a tad after the meeting as concerns of a potential recession take hold. Softer survey data tends to act as a forward-looking gauge of the economy which has added to concerns that lower economic activity is behind the recent advances in inflation. The Fed’s GDPNow forecast foresees Q3 GDP growth of 2.9% (annual rate) placing the US economy more or less in line with Q2 growth – which suggests the economy is stable. Recent market calm and some Fed reassurance means the market is now split on weather the Fed will cut by 25 basis points or 50.

 

Richard Snow

Immediate Market Reaction

The dollar and US Treasuries have not moved too sharply in all honestly which is to be expected given how closely inflation data matched estimates. It may seem counter-intuitive that the dollar and yields rose after positive (lower) inflation numbers but the market is slowly unwinding heavily bearish market sentiment after last week’s massively volatile Monday move. Softer incoming data could strengthen the argument that the Fed has kept policy too restrictive for too long and lead to further dollar depreciation. The longer-term outlook for the US dollar remains bearish ahead of he Feds rate cutting cycle.

US equity indices have already mounted a bullish response to the short-lived selloff inspired by a shift out of risky assets to satisfy the carry trade unwind after the Bank of Japan surprised markets with a larger than expected hike the last time the central bank met at the end of July. The S&P 500 has already filled in last Monday’s gap lower as market conditions appear to stabilise for the time being.

 

 

13th Aug,24

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Number of traders net-short has increased by 33.84% from last week.

SYMBOL	TRADING BIAS	NET-LONG%	NET-SHORT%	CHANGE IN LONGS	CHANGE IN SHORTS	CHANGE IN OI
				Daily Weekly	Daily Weekly	Daily Weekly

Gold : In fact, traders have remained net-short since Jul 19 when Gold traded near 2,400.62, price has moved 2.63% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 4.59% lower than yesterday and 0.69% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 17.28% higher than yesterday and 33.84% higher from last week.

 

Our data shows traders are now net-short Gold for the first time since Jul 19, 2024 when Gold traded near 2,400.62. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bullish contrarian trading bias.