分类： Currency Market

19 Aug……

Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.

 

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Okay, hello everyone, and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the CyberFusion5.0 Market Outlook for the week of August 19, 2024.

U.S. Dollar Index

Now, to get started this week, we’ll begin where we always do, with that very important US Dollar Index . Now, the dollar is under pressure again this week, but this is largely due to rumors from the media talking about emergency Fed meetings, which there aren’t, and emergency rate cuts, which there are not. So again, we’ve got to be very, very careful at the start of the week because that’s when they seem to be spinning this web. But again, the Fed has been very clear that they are looking at cuts in September, but they are not confirming 50 basis points, but they have confirmed there will be no emergency meeting here. So taking that into consideration, our major support level is, of course, our current yearly opening price, 101.37. The dollar will not be in an official bear trend until we break through that level. If we do, we have heavy support on the most recent identified verified support zone, and that low is coming in at 102.16. That’s the area that we’ll watch for this coming week. The indicators are mixed, but we do still have a contrarian reversal signal on the MA diff cross; the pink line over the blue line is basically saying the medium-term trend is starting to turn back to the upside. Now, as I’ve discussed in previous sessions, in most cases, the dollar does very well in the month of September, and that’s the final rally for the year. I don’t see that anything has changed at the current time.

Gold

Now, I do feel the market is getting a bit ahead of itself with Gold prices’ very aggressive move, but on a Friday, now this is the highest close I think we’ve ever had in gold at 2509. What I can advise is there is significant headwinds above 2500. I believe we will finish out the year above 2500, but in the near term, be very, very cautious buying at these levels. Now, we’re sitting at about 82.8 on the predicted RSI, but the predicted differences are starting again to, they’re a little bit overbought here, but the gold remains in a firm uptrend while above its current quarterly opening price, 2326. And again, the—excuse me, 2066 is the current quarterly opening, but the yearly opening price at 2066 again confirms gold in a strong uptrend. So again, there is some resistance up here between 2500 and 2567 on a side note, and I would be very cautious buying up at these very lofty levels.

S&P 500 Index

Now, with the S&P 500 , looking at that, equities are also recovering, but we can assess here that they’re stalling out at the current monthly opening price, 55,378.4. This is a very significant level for us to overtake. We want to stay above this level. Now, they’ve talked about what a fantastic week the equities had last week, and well, that is technically true, but I will also point out that we’re basically flat on the month after a fairly significant selloff. So again, we’ve recovered right back to our monthly opening price, and this is why it’s very important that we use the current monthly opening price, not a rolling performance model of a random 15 days, a random 30 days. We want to start at the beginning of the month and end at the beginning of the month, and you can see the natural retracement point is back to that current monthly opening. Now, we’ve crossed over the VantagePoint T cross long, that will be our initial support, or our main support for next week, 5427, and if we click on our F8, we can get the additional support from our long predicted, and that’s at 5462. As long as we’re holding above these two levels, then we should be able to break through that monthly opening, but again, my concern here is the inverse correlation between equities and the US Dollar Index , and the fact that equities usually don’t do very well in August and September—not in all years, but in a large number of years. They don’t do very well, and it slightly favors the US dollar. But the media is spinning this web about emergency rate cuts, emergency Fed meetings; there’s none of that, guys. There’s a scheduled Fed meeting. I don’t know who came up with this emergency Fed meeting, but it’s not happening, and the Fed has confirmed that. Now, there is Fed testimony next week, so be careful the latter part of the week. But for now, equities remain firm, but 5537 will be a pivotal area to begin the week and likely throughout the remainder of the calendar week.

Crude Oil

Now, as we look at Light Crude Oil , oil did recover, but again, once again, when we look at the charts, we’ve had that recovery back up, but then we’re failing up around that 80 mark, and you can see here a big push up at the beginning of the week, and this is a very good example of what I’ve worked on in the VantagePoint live training room of a Monday-Tuesday reversal, that very often Monday is a fake price, and then on Tuesday, the real price starts to show itself. Now, the inverse correlation between oil and Natural Gas heavily favored natural gas, and that gas did very, very well this past week. It just sold off on profit-taking on Friday, but oil is also moving lower, so either one, either one of the other is going to move up, and my money would be on Nat gas, looking at that seasonal pattern. So for now, oil has broken down below our T cross long, that area is coming in at 76.22. We remain bearish by that while below that level, but as you can see, buyers coming in at the yearly opening price, but a very shallow retracement higher this time, and that tells me that oil likely has further downside, and longs on natural gas is likely going to be the better play between these two commodities.

Bitcoin

Now, as we look at Bitcoin for next week, once again, not the best month for buying Bitcoin here. We know this, so you can see that we’re struggling, banging into that VP all week. We have struggled to get above the VantagePoint T cross long, that area currently coming in at 60,115.34. So we need to break clear of that, get back up above the quarter. Bitcoin, the Bitcoin seasonal pattern, very good buying between mid to late September and mid to late October, usually the top period for buying Bitcoin in any calendar year. So be patient for that, but for now, we’ve got a large drop down here, uh, on that, I think it was 2 weeks ago, on the Monday, and again, these silly rumors that are being spread around, it’s always on a Monday, guys. So if you hear something that sounds strange, ignore it. Buy the dip, sell the rally because it’s likely fake news is what it is. So be careful, very cautious on that, but that, that news of emergency rate cuts slammed Bitcoin down, but it immediately recovered. So once again, if we get above our T cross long, then Bitcoin—but Bitcoin, to be clear, remains in a firm uptrend. The medium-term trend is down, but the longer-term trend remains up. We just have to clear 60,115. Get back up above the monthly opening price. I could easily see Bitcoin into the 80,000 mark by year-end.

VIX

Now, when we look at some of the European equity markets, and of course, the very important VIX to gauge with the direct, to help us gauge with the direction of the equity markets, the VIX is sitting on its current calendar yearly opening price. This is a significant concern for me. If we don’t break below this, then the current rally in equities is a fake move, and that’s how we use inner markets to tell us these things. So if we break down below the yearly opening price again on the VIX, 15.01, then that would tell me the equities are not going to rally in the near term, probably not again until mid to late September, when that dollar buying is concluded at the end of the US fiscal fourth quarter, which is October 1. So once again, be careful of this, but if you’re a stock trader, watch this level on the VIX. Even if you can just Google it throughout the course of the day and see what the price is, but if we break down below that, uh, T cross long, which we’ve already done at 18.25, if we take out the yearly opening price also at 15.01, you’re going to see the equities turn lower very, very quickly, and that would fuel more gold buying and possibly even more Bitcoin buying. So keep an eye on that. The indicators right now are bearish actually on the VIX, so it’ll be very interesting, and how is that going to affect my friends in Europe and Germany with the DAX ?

DAX

Well, you can see that the DAX started to rally higher as soon as the S&P 500 did. Now, we’re approaching the monthly opening price, 18,432.50. This is the area you’re going to have to keep a close eye on, and believe me, if that VIX plummets, it will pull the European equities down also on the positive correlation between the DAX and the S&P.

Euro versus U.S. Dollar

So watch this very, very closely, guys. Now, with some of our main Forex pairs, all eyes right now are on Euro-US . Saying how bullish it was, but in actual fact, guys, this is the second big failure we’ve had at the current yearly opening price. We’ve had a rally on Friday. Now, here’s what I’ve seen and what I can share with you because I get a lot of comments, and I really appreciate your comments in the comment section. It’s a very positive group we have here, and again, it’s just about providing alternative strategies to use with your VantagePoint software. It’s not about who’s right, who’s wrong. It’s just about strategies that can assist you. So this is the current yearly opening price on EUR-US, 110.38, and we did this live in the VP room, and again, I warned everybody at that time and said, look, the monthly projections are right around this level, and the yearly opening price is at 110, approximately 110.38. So we need a clean break of this area. The Euro has not made a clean break and closed 2 days above that level all year.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar

So right now, the British Pound is the one that has done very well, but again with the Euro, the indicators are well, somewhat sideways, but that is an invisible level of resistance that the average trader never sees because they look at these rolling performance models where they’re saying, oh no, Euro’s super bullish last 10 days, last 15 days, last 30 days, even the last 90 days, but they fail to mention that when you go back and look at the chart through the calendar year, it’s like, well, wait a minute, this has never been positive on the calendar year, so how could that be bullish, right? So again, it does have an underlying bullish tone to it. I just want to make sure that everybody sees and understands that level, that invisible level of the current yearly opening price that we need desperately to break through. But when you cross-reference that to the British pound, uh, this is why I recommended the other week, the Euro-British pound, uh, short because Great Britain-US has broken above its yearly opening price multiple times this calendar year where the euro is not, and it is indirectly showing us which currency is stronger. I would gladly, and I did, gladly short EUR-US, but I wasn’t interested in shorting the British pound-US dollar because you can see that it’s significantly more bullish than what the euro is. So one of the ways we can play that is going to Euro-Great Britain, that’s what Euro-Great Britain is, Euro-US, Great Britain-US. So we can clearly see using this trading setup, which of these two currency pairs is stronger. Now for next week, could it be possible that the British pound overshot the mark a bit, and it’s going to retrace lower, and now it’s the Euro’s time to turn to go higher? That’s possible, and I will put that out there for everybody. Just remember on Euro-US, and I know there’s a lot of Euro-US traders, it’s the number one traded Forex pair. We’ve got to get above that yearly open price, guys, on Euro-US before we buy at this level, or much like last week, you fall into a bull trap.

U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc

Now, the US Swiss Franc once again, I am anticipating that this carry trade either way is going to come apart in October, November, and December of this year. So that favors two currencies, not just the Japanese Yen but it also favors the Swiss Franc. So right now, this pair is getting all tangled up in the VP cross, long but I also think we have room to extend higher prior to October 1st, but I think it will be a very shallow rise.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen

So you can see we’re losing strength in our medium-term strength. Our predicted RSI is failing to hold above the 60 level, and it’s pointing down again. Just remember, we’re in a period of known dollar strength, but that still may not help the dollar against the Yen or the Swiss Franc if the carry trade falls apart and dollar-Yen crashes. It will pull US-Swiss Franc down with it. That’s the very likely outcome. So be careful, this, if you’re a Forex trader, the monthly opening price, 87.80, we need to get above that, stay above that, and the indicators are not saying that that is in the cards right out of the gate here. So when we look at Dollar-Yen , uh, once again, the Dollar Yen, even if you’re not a Forex trader, guys, it would behoove you to keep an eye on this thing because if it does crash, it’s usually a leading indicator that the stock indices are going down with it. So that’s the basis of advanced intermarket technical analysis, is one market will drive multiple other markets. So in this particular scenario, um, this is what Su of coin is a death cross, which is the T cross long crossing over to the downside, the monthly opening price. So all of our resistance is basically sitting at the same level for next week, 149.44, the monthly opening, $149.98. So for the more savvy trader, and you could disagree and say, okay, no, I believe the dollar yen is super bullish, and I want to buy it. Well, that’s your call, but I would recommend that you buy it above the monthly opening price at 149.98 and keep a very tight leash on longs, uh, because either way, even though the rumors with the Fed, I believe there are going to be several cuts this year, and I believe the Bank of Japan is going to take advantage of that while the Fed cuts, the Bank of Japan hikes. There’s your carry trade gone, and that will affect the stock market, guys, is what I can warn you of. So keep a very close eye on this pair, even if you’re not a Forex trader, because this is going to tell us what Gold’s going to do, what the Swiss Franc’s going to do. It’s going to tell us potentially how the stock markets are going to handle this. All of these things can be roped into this particular Forex pair. So watch it very closely, and it is again losing upside momentum.

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar

Now, the US-Canadian pair, once again, we’re holding below the T cross long, but here’s the deal, guys. We’ve got to break down below the quarterly opening, and in most cases, the Canadian dollar is not overly strong at this time of the year. The economic numbers out of Canada, the jobs numbers, they’ve cut interest rates twice, very little reason, oil prices dropping. The only thing that’s holding this pair to the downside is the equity markets moving higher. So the inner market correlation that you want to be aware of is if those stock markets, if the VIX is right and stocks are going lower, then this pair will go higher, not lower. We have an MA diff cross right here, the pink line over the blue line. If that continues to advance, then this quarterly opening or just below that will hold, but always remember, guys, US-Canada has never been below 132.50 the entire calendar year. So if we look at it back 9 months ago, uh, to the calendar yearly opening, which is very important to look at, you can see that it has only gone up, and there’s multiple reasons that I could go over in this in a very short time why, but in short, now, you’ve got falling oil prices, you’ve got the potential of an equity selloff, uh, you’ve got the potential for dollar strength over the next four to six weeks. There’s a lot of factors that play into a trade here, and I just want to present as many as possible for you. So once again, when we look at that, that quarterly opening is a big one, a very big one, 136.72, and when we look at this right now, you can see that the T cross long is also still above the quarterly opening. Now, I can click on the F8 on this one and also look at this and say, okay, okay, well, if the if the long predicted crosses over the quarterly, then maybe we’ve got a bigger trend down, but I don’t believe that that will be the case, and I would actually be looking for buying opportunities, respecting the fact that the MA diff cross is saying that this move to the downside is temporary.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

When we look at Aussie-US and New Zealand-US , same deal here, guys. You’re looking at almost the exact same currency, and right now, it’s sitting at a breakout point. Aussie-US is sitting at a breakout point, 66.76. That’s your quarterly opening price. If we can break through that, then here’s another twist for you. Is that the Euro-US pair has a very, very high correlation to this pair, so if the Euro does pop to the upside, it’s going to pull the Aussie with it. However, if the Euro-US cannot break through that area, then both of these currencies are going down, and if that happens, it will likely be on Tuesday. So watch for a false break higher on Euro-US and a false break higher on Aussie-US because we need to hold. This is how we can gauge real momentum, is if we’re holding above the quarterly opening, then that would confirm dollar weakness. But very often, whatever happens on Friday also happens on Monday, and then on Tuesday, there’s a violent reversal with the trader left scratching his head, saying what happened.

New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

When we look at New Zealand, the same thing here, we’ve already had a failure there. We’ve retraced back down to the T cross long, we’re rallying back up, but the indicators are warning that this is not as strong as what it looks, and that surprise rate cut from New Zealand did have a bit of a shock to the market, uh, so that’s let some steam out of this, and we are going to have the RBA minutes, uh, I believe out this coming week, which will help you know see how some of these Pacific Rim-based currencies are going to do, uh, how the how their banks are looking at things, but I believe they’re next also to cut along with the Fed. So it’ll be a very, very interesting week, uh, a relatively light docket this coming week. We but we do have the Fed speaking a couple of other minor reports. I don’t think there’s anything major this week, but just be careful of what happens on Monday because I’m starting to see a pattern where every Monday they’re making up fake news and they’re releasing it to the market only for it to reverse on Tuesday. Okay, so with that said, this is the CyberFusion5.0 Market Outlook for the week of August 19th, 2024.

Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.

 

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Okay, hello everyone, and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the CyberFusion5.0 Market Outlook for the week of August 12, 2024.

U.S. Dollar Index

Now, to get started this week, we’ll begin with a very important U.S. Dollar Index . Another big week is coming up with CPI data, but I think the rate cut for September is pretty much baked in.

When we look at our Vantage Point software, the dollar remains bullish on the year while above 101.37. We are in a known period of dollar strength, which usually lasts until about mid to late September. Then, either way—regardless of whether the Fed cuts or doesn’t cut—the dollar usually sells off at the end of their fiscal fourth quarter, which is October 1.

The indicators right now are the MA Diff Cross —our pink line crossing over the blue line to the upside, which is a contrarian buy signal—but we still remain below the T Cross Long . Our corrective move back to 103.82 appears imminent, but the CPI data next week could change that very quickly, and the dollar could slip lower. So, it is a fundamental trading week, but the indicators are warning that it is going to turn back up.

Currencies , by the way, guys, are very different from stocks , commodities , and options . People are required to buy fiat currencies ; they’re not required to buy stocks or commodities , or even Bitcoin for that matter. So, we always want to take that into consideration—there is real demand for the dollar in September. But again, that contrarian signal remains. The medium-term outlook is bearish while below 103.82.

Gold

Now, gold has made somewhat of a recovery here, but again, in most cases, gold starts to strengthen after October 1, as I’ve mentioned many times before. But 2,326, our quarterly opening price long, is still very, very attractive while above that area. Our TCross Long is coming in at 2,407—that’s the level we want to keep our eye on in the medium term. This is an outlook, guys, not a recap of something that’s already happened. This video is being done on Saturday morning at 11:06 a.m. while the markets are closed for the next trading week.

When we look at this, we have an MA Diff Cross right on the zero line, but the predicted RSI is showing that we still have upward momentum. What I would like to see is that we can retake and get back above the current monthly opening price of 2,447; then we have a shot of getting over 2,500.

S&P 500 Index

Now, with the equity markets for next week, the equities took a real crazy hit on Monday, and the bulk of what caused that was an entirely inappropriate comment that the Fed should execute emergency rate cuts. There is absolutely no reason why he should do that. He did come out and say this week—on Thursday, I believe—that if there is a rate cut sooner than September, it will not have anything to do with what’s happened this past week. Again, there is no reason for an emergency hike or an emergency cut—there is no emergency period here, guys, from one labor report when multiple labor reports, I might add, have been bad.

Once again, the equities should technically recover to some degree, but usually, August and September are not the best months for buying stocks . This is a corrective move higher. Our predicted differences are, again, turning up but still below the zero line. The Neural Index strength does look pretty good here, but we must overtake that very important T Cross Long at around the 5,400 mark. If we fail there, then again, as you can see, the quarterly opening price and the monthly opening price are now very substantial hurdles for the S&P , Nasdaq , Dow , and DAX 30 to get above their respective levels. So again, be careful—even if we get above the T Cross Long , we still have significant headwinds up to 5,537.

Crude Oil

Now, when we look at oil , the oil price is recovering, but again, in my respectful opinion, only August is not the best month to be buying oil . We flip over to natural gas , which usually benefits from the seasonal pattern, not oil . I don’t think we’re going to get above 78.54, the monthly opening price. We’ve just eked out a close above the T Cross Long on Friday, but be careful of oil contracts on late-day Monday and Tuesday for a reversal lower. We do have a medium-term crossover that’s taking place, but the long-term crossover has not. Natural gas prices are rising with that known seasonal pattern, so the pattern on oil usually doesn’t do well in August. It’s already had its rally for the year and is getting ready to move lower.

Now, I will point out, however, and this is something for the bulls—this is the second time we have touched the current yearly opening price. This is very important, guys—why we don’t use a rolling performance model of a random 300 days, a random 30 days, or even a random five days. This is the current yearly opening price, and there have been excellent long trades twice off of here. This was a solid move up when we came down back in June, and that’s the power of seasonal patterns, guys. This is a seasonal pattern, but this is not. So again, we’ve got tensions in the Middle East, all of these things, but at the end of the day, this is not the same pattern that we saw in June, in my respectful opinion only, and it heavily favors natural gas , not oil . So again, watch your long-term crossover, and we’re going to need at least a couple of days closing above the TCross Long at 76.62 before we bite on longs up here.

Bitcoin

Now, when we look at that all-important Bitcoin —another fantastic week for Bitcoin on this foolishness on Monday, with these rumors of emergency rate cuts. We have to do emergency rate cuts—there was nothing behind those comments. So again, Bitcoin got caught up in the Monday selloff but then completely recovered back up to our T Cross Long . Now, I will remind everybody each week—I know I may sound like a broken record—but I will remind everybody that the main buying opportunity for Bitcoin is closer to October once we get past the period of dollar strength. So right now, our T Cross Long is 61,200. I would be far more comfortable with Bitcoin longs if we can get above 64,654, the current monthly opening price. Again, guys, I don’t want to look at a random 30 days. At the start of the new month, your monthly opening price is one of your best friends in trading because it will tell you, from an unbiased standpoint, above the monthly opening, it’s bullish—the buyers are in control. Below the monthly opening, the bears are in control. So right now, I would argue the bears still remain in control until we can take out that particular level.

Volatility Index ($VIX)

Now, a lot of eyes were on the VIX this past week. I’ve discussed it for several months now in this outlook, and again, whenever we see a daily bar that looks like this, guys, don’t ever buy a bar that looks like that because it was just an unprecedented move. I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen the VIX move like this—I think it was probably back during the financial crisis of 2008. So again, the VIX is back under pressure here, but firmly above its current yearly opening price and the quarterly opening—a lot of heavy support on the VIX , starting with our T Cross Long at 19.62, then our monthly at 15.85, the yearly at 15.01. That order is very, very important at this time of the year. 14.64—if we hold above that level, guys, then that tells me that the main indices are going to remain under pressure until we get past mid-September with the dollar .

DAX

Now again, when we look at the European equity markets , they fell prey to the same thing on Monday. But once again, the current yearly opening price—while they were giving a death sentence to stocks and the stock indices—I’m not in that camp. We have to break down below 16,828 before we can make that call that the equity markets are officially in bear market territory. They are not, guys. If you attach a rolling performance model, you could make that argument, but it would be a false argument. And again, this is a line in the sand that is, again, extremely objective—it’s not subjective based on this or that. It’s based on a line that says, “Okay, we’re still positive on the year; we’ve retraced lower—now we could be getting ready to move higher.” This too will be a retracement to the T Cross Long , and that would be 17,971.

So once again, guys, keep an eye on these key levels. There is a clear buy signal with the MA Diff Cross that is forming on the way up, and as you can see, as it started moving back up, it was able to get back above its weekly opening price last week. So keep an eye on your weekly opening price too, guys, because it’s very, very important.

Euro versus U.S. Dollar

Now, when we look at some of our main Forex pairs, we did have some fun with this in the Vantage Point live training room this past week. Once again, guys, when we look at that current yearly opening price on the EUR/USD pair, the market was incredibly bullish on this pair. But once again, it must clear the yearly opening price. The EUR/USD pair has not been positive in 2024—that’s a fact, not fiction, right? So as we approach that yearly opening price, all of a sudden, it started to lose momentum. Now, we’re still currently holding. There is a positive here, guys, in that we’re above our T Cross Long at 1.0876, the monthly opening at 1.0826, and again, that very important quarterly opening price, which I believe we will test, at 1.0732. Now, I believe we will test that before mid-September, so on a pullback, that’s where I would be looking for longs—between the T Cross Long and that yearly opening—quarterly opening price, excuse me. For a trader that is on the sidelines in the month of August, you would set buy limit orders above 1.1038, and as soon as the EUR breaks—if the EUR breaks above that area—then you’ll have a long ready to go right out of the gate.

U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc

Now, the USD/CHF has recovered on this dollar strength—I believe it can recover more. But once again, to demonstrate the power of an unbiased tool like the current yearly opening price, we came right down to that area, and mysteriously, with no identifiable support, it reversed. And again, we’re still positive on the year, but I think that this is going to be a relatively shallow retracement higher. The quarterly opening at 0.8972—that’s the level you want to watch. But the first area of major resistance is the T Cross Long at 0.8736, which is likely going to be tested early in the week. But be careful of that Monday-Tuesday reversal that I’ve discussed. There is CPI data coming out, and I believe it will be slightly softer. But again, that’s subjective—it may be hotter, and that could fuel a dollar rally that we’re expecting anyway going into early September. So just be careful with those levels, and of course, the current monthly opening price at 0.8780.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar

Now, the GBP/USD once again, you can see, is fighting it out. The battle lines are pretty much drawn here, guys, on the current yearly opening price at 1.2732, but now we’ve slipped below the quarterly and the monthly, and we’ve got our T Cross Long at 1.28—that is the critical level for next week’s trading. We need to overtake that, and then we need to get above 1.2856 and stay above that. I don’t think that’s going to happen, guys, until probably closer to October, but again, I could be wrong. So we use that current yearly opening price of 1.2732. We need a clean break of it, and you can see that it’s really struggling along here. The indicators from VP are warning that we could be getting ready to move higher—just watch these resistance levels.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen

Now, the USD/JPY remains all over the map here, guys, and it’s because of the Bank of Japan . But once again, that current yearly opening price, which most traders and investors don’t even look at—they’re wrapped up in some type of rolling performance model, throwing a whole bunch of different indicators and Fibonacci levels at things—and they miss the simplest thing: what price did this pair open the year at? It opened at 141.03, and it’s been above it all year. That is largely due to the carry trade, which I believe is going to start coming unwound if the Bank of Japan hikes again, which I think they will, and they’re going to leverage that to get their currency a little stronger. But it’s a fine line. So right now, our retracement—our T Cross Long at 150.69—shorts are currently heavily favored. But this is a fundamental trade of what happens to that very important carry trade, and when it comes apart or unwinds, it’s usually vicious. So be very, very careful with this.

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar

Now, the USD/CAD once again—a pretty terrible jobs number coming out of Canada on Friday. I think we lost around 2,800 jobs. But the seasonal pattern—what can save the Canadian dollar —is if the equity markets move higher. The high correlation the Canadian dollar has to the global equity markets and, of course, oil and some commodities . But the quarterly opening at 1.3672—that is the level to keep your eye on in next week’s trading. If we continue to hold above this level, then the USD/CAD pair will continue its uptrend, but if we break down below the quarterly, we could start that slow grind toward the current yearly opening price at 1.3250. The indicators in VP right now are very, very mixed on this one. This MA Diff Cross —as you update your software weekly, keep an eye on that pink line because if it crosses back over the blue line, that will confirm what I already think—that the Canadian economy is going into recession, or could be in recession right now, and a weaker Canadian dollar . Now again, if the U.S. does go into recession, that will really hurt the Canadian dollar because that’s their biggest trading partner. So keep an eye out to see if we get that contrarian signal to say that this uptrend is still in place and we’re getting ready to turn higher. But it is helpful to give everybody a line in the sand—above the yearly, above the quarterly, below the monthly—that’s the only thing here, guys. So 1.3672—keep your eye on that particular level all of next week.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

Now, the AUD , the CAD , and the NZD —all very similar trades, and they’re all highly correlated to equities . So right now, you can see that the AUD is really trying to push higher, but I believe it’s too early to call this a bull market. As I discussed several weeks ago, leveraging the current yearly opening price of 0.6812—that was an epic failure at that particular level. But I would argue we had some pretty good support down here in the lows around 0.6508, and then obviously, this pair got caught up in Monday’s nonsense. And again, I will reiterate—there is absolutely nothing in anything that’s come across my desk that would suggest the Fed needs to do emergency rate cuts. He should have cut months ago—yes, we all know that—but emergency rate cuts? No, no—we need to remove that language because there is no immediate emergency at all. So right now, for next week, our T Cross Long is 0.6572—we’ve got to hold above the T Cross Long if this has any chance at all. But if we slip below that monthly opening price, I believe that is likely—hopefully—the low for the year. I know hope is not a strategy here, guys, but this was a crazy bar, and I think they flushed out everything they needed—they flushed all the stops out that they could. So again, the low of that bar, 0.6350, is the support that we are going to use until such time as it breaks. But again, I would like to stay above—hold above—the monthly opening at 0.6542. That would confirm that the dollar is starting to weaken.

New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

The NZD is slightly stronger than the AUD , and that’s because of the big selloff on the NZD a few weeks ago, and now it’s starting to recover. So our T Cross Long there is 0.5970. But right now, there is heavy support along that monthly opening price—that level, 0.5951, right there. As you can see, this pink line appears to be getting ready to cross back down. So what we can take from the stock traders can take from the USD/CAD , the AUD/USD , and the NZD/USD is that these currencies are often barometers for your stock market. If these three currencies weaken, then that tells me stocks are in trouble. So be very, very cautious in the first couple of trading days this coming week because it is a data-dependent week yet again.

With that said, this is the CyberFusion5.0 Market Outlook for the week of August 12, 2024.

Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

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Okay, hello everyone, welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the CyberFusion5.0 Market Outlook for the week of August 5th, 2024.

U.S. Dollar Index

Now, to start this week, we’ll begin with that very important US Dollar Index . As we can see, this previous week we’re running right along the T-cross long, which I had discussed in last week’s Weekly Outlook. We do not look solely at the neural index for a trend. We use our T-cross long with the neural index, with the neural index strength, the predicted differences—there are multiple points of confirmation of a trend. But that’s not determined by the neural index. That’s not a highbrow thing—whatever that meant—that’s too funny, uh, but again, looking at these points of confirmation, these weekly videos are intended to help the average trader utilize the software potentially in a different way, identifying the primary trend and what the short, medium, and long-term trends are. We use that for the predicted differences. So, when we look at the Dollar Index , we can see that we could not get above our T-cross long on Friday. We had a substantial sell-off on the dollar, now that was largely based again on the non-farm payroll number. It was a very, very poor labor report, but my argument would be that that labor report has not been good for months, but the U6 now has had a significant spike from 7.4 to 7.8, plus the unemployment rate went higher. That is now going to likely force the Fed’s hand to cut, but uh, it’s not about one cut, guys, it’s about how many we get into the year-end, and how it will affect the dollar. Now, another point of confirmation in the overall primary trend is the current yearly opening price. We don’t want to look at a rolling performance model, looking at the last random 5 days, the last random 30 days, we need points to do that in the current quarterly opening, the current monthly opening, and the current 2024 yearly opening. So the dollar remains positive on the year while above 101.37, and again, in most cases, there is still dollar strength in the fiscal in the US fiscal fourth quarter, which ends October 1st. So I don’t think the dollar is down and out here completely. I think the market has to digest that labor report, but the immediate pressure currently on the dollar is to the downside. We have three crossover short-term, medium-term, and long-term crossover momentum on the predicted RSI. This will affect all of your forex pairs, guys— Euro/US , Great Britain/US , US/Swiss Franc , US/Japan could be a big one, uh, and of course, AUD/US and New Zealand/US . So, a simplified version of this outlook is that we would either be buying or selling US dollars if the dollar is moving lower—in most cases, your other markets would be moving higher—uh, Gold , Bitcoin , potentially the equity markets, but they have taken a hit because now the market believes the US is going to potentially go into a recession.

Gold

So the dollar remains soft, now this initially saw we saw a spike in Gold . Now, again, gold on the quarter usually doesn’t fare quite as well in the month of August and September, but it does do well between October and January. But right now, uh, I think the bets are building on a potential hard landing, not a soft landing, because the Fed has refused to cut, and while other central banks have already cut twice, uh, I don’t know how many more times he’s going to be behind the curve like this to get out in front of these things. He always seems to be behind, but again, right now, our T-cross long identifiable area—2407—long gold while above this area is reasonable. The indicators are in the other points of confirmation in the Vantage Point software are all in agreement. Now we also have our yearly opening price, gold very positive on the year, uh, maybe even outperforming Bitcoin a little bit this past week. So when we look at this right now, uh, we want to look at our key level, our T-cross long—2407—our predicted differences are rising, and this is the inverse correlation to the Dollar Index : go dollar down, gold higher. So watch this level next week because again, this is an outlook, not a recap of something that already took place. We’re looking into next week’s trading while the market is actually closed on a Saturday.

Light Sweet Crude Oil

Now when we look at our, uh, Light Sweet Crude Oil , this is in most cases a softer period for oil. We’re approaching the yearly opening price. I would respectfully submit to be careful around this area. Again, we can see that we’ve had a significant rally back in June on this, but at this time of year, in most cases, in the month of August, oil is soft, and Natural Gas is moving higher. I believe it’s almost 100% over the last 5 years, in the month of August, natural gas has moved higher in August. Doesn’t mean it will happen for sure this year, guys, I’m just pointing out a seasonality, a very strong seasonality to keep your eye on. So right now, our yearly opening price on light sweet crude oil—71.78—I do anticipate some buying at that particular level, but again, I need those multiple points of confirmation from Vantage Point to confirm that, and right now, I don’t have that. So when we came down to the yearly opening in June, we had an MA diff cross that started to move higher, we had the break of the 60 level on the predicted RSI, then we broke above our T-cross long. There are multiple levels of confirmation looking for a trade, not just the neural index. That is a short-term indicator, guys. We need to look at the short, medium, and longer-term indicators to get that level of confirmation.

S&P 500 Index

Now when we look at stocks for next week, this is—stocks for next week are going to be very, very tricky here, but I believe ultimately they should start to move higher once we get past the labor report, maybe get a little bit more positive reinforcement the economy is okay, but in most cases, when the Dollar Index drops, stocks rise. So, uh, I believe we could be setting up for a Monday, Tuesday reversal here, uh, which means the market continues to move lower on Monday, and then Tuesday and Wednesday, the stocks start to recover. But again, we need those points of confirmation, and at the current time, we don’t have that. But keep an eye on your neural index and your neural index strength for any kind of trigger point, uh, that would tell us that we potentially could be turning around here, uh, we we have some some verified support lows, uh, the first one is down here at or about the 5191. Now I don’t think we’re going to get to that by Monday or Tuesday, I believe we we will recover prior to that. Remember the current yearly opening price, guys, 4745, the stocks are very, very bullish on the year. Don’t again, we we’ve got to be careful of buying into these short-term reactionary moves. I believe things will settle down again, and they’ll start spinning it, saying that it’s only one bad labor report, well, actually, there’s been multiple bad labor reports, but this is how they spin things, and then, uh, then people slowly start coming back into stocks again.

DAX

So watch for that on Tuesday and Wednesday, uh, on the European side of that, of that same trade, just remember, it’s basically the DAX and the S&P and the NASDAQ, they’re basically the same trade. Okay, so right now, we’re still heading lower, but if the S&P, the Dow, the NASDAQ, turn back up, that will pull our European equity markets back up also.

Volatility Index

But we do want to do a comparative analysis to the VIX as I talked about last week, and stocks did have a pretty good week for the most part, and the VIX did not do well, but the second we started getting that data, and we got the Fed, and then the payroll number, the VIX spiked again. Now, what I can tell you, and, and again, only in my, uh, in my respectful opinion, I would never buy a bar that looks like that. It’s almost guaranteed that you’re going to retrace at least, uh, 50 to 80% of this particular bar. So again, it’s a reaction, it’s the shock of the payroll number coming in so low, below the consensus number, and below, of course, the ADP number, which was low to begin with, at 120, and then we came in even lower than that. So that sent a bit of a shockwave through the market, uh, of a potential recession, but again, we were too early to make that call here yet, uh, for now, the VIX is showing signs of strength, but I, I don’t believe it will continue higher from where it closed on, uh, Friday.

Bitcoin

Now, Bitcoin also reacting to that labor, uh, report negatively, but we are still holding above our quarterly opening price—very important, guys, uh, if we lose the quarterly opening price, in my respectful opinion, you still got a buying opportunity as, but we don’t expect Bitcoin to really start making its next move anyway until late September into October 1st, with that very powerful seasonal pattern. So keep an eye on that, uh, area right now. Our quarterly opening—61,633—the indicators are bearish now, but remember, guys, the trend is still firmly up on this on a longer period, uh, so again, uh, it’s all about, well, some people could argue timing, but, uh, I think understanding certain types of seasonal patterns are very, very powerful, and usually before they kick in, they flush the market out first, so they’re probably going to run some stops on Bitcoin, but you’re still looking at a buying opportunity, uh, in my respectful opinion only.

Euro versus U.S. Dollar

Now when we, when we come into some of our main Forex pairs, again, guys, it would be somewhat redundant to go through all of them, but in the Forex market, you’re either buying or selling US dollars.

Now, you have three currencies that react strongly to equities and commodities—that’s the Aussie , the Kiwi , and, of course, the Canadian dollar —so if we get a bit of a rebound in stocks, watch for those currencies to potentially turn around. The Euro has extended considerably higher, uh, where the Canadian dollar and the Aussie and the New Zealand dollar did not do well, even on that dollar strength. So, what I want to do for you is outline where those inter-market markets are going to drive certain currencies, so you’re, uh, in most cases, when the dollar takes a hit, the Euro, the pound, they’re going to rise, maybe even the Yen, but that doesn’t mean the Aussie , the CAD , and the New Zealand will. Those currencies are going to follow your stocks very, very closely. So, even though the stock market has turned lower once again, we can see that the Euro has spiked. So when I look closer at that S&P 500 and where we’re going with equities, uh, the further we move away from the T-cross long, the more likely it is, guys, we’re going to retrace to it. So our retracement point is 5483, but these indicators are still bearish, but the euro is rising based on its, basically, uh, 99.9% inverse correlation to the Dollar Index . So, Dollar Index down, the Euro up. So the Euro has managed to cross above our T-cross long, your retracement point for Monday, for next week—108.40—we need to hold above that level. When you look at the primary trend on the Euro, it is still down—110.38—the Euro has never been positive on the calendar year. Don’t forget that. So, right now, yes, we do have a buy signal, but we don’t quite have a medium-term or a long-term crossover yet. So we need to hold very close to that area. If we click on the F8, then we can see that the 108.42 is our long predicted, so you’ve got both of those predicted moving averages at the same level.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar

Now, the British Pound/US Dollar is virtually the same trade here, and you can see that it’s not doing anywhere near as well as what the euro is. Bank of England cut this week, another strike against the Fed. What is he waiting for? Uh, again, uh, Bank of Canada’s cut twice, Swiss National Bank twice, ECB once, probably another one coming. Now the Bank of England’s cutting, so the Fed, the longer it waits, the worse it’s going to be for the US dollar, in my respectful opinion. So the pound has a buy signal starting to form, our MA diff cross, neural index strength rising, predicted RSI momentum building, but we’ve got to get above our T-cross long—128.51—once we clear that, the pound is set to move higher. But always remember, there is that seasonal pattern of dollar strength in the month of September, actually usually starts mid-August. So be careful with this particular pair.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen

As with the US/Japanese Yen , uh, now the Bank of Japan is going to step on the pedal, they’re going to start, um, hiking. Why the Fed is cutting, the entire carry trade potentially could come unwound here, which I’ve talked about for weeks, if not months, on here. Be careful of buying this pair, because as fast as it went up, it can, it can go lower equally as quickly. So be very, very, very careful with this pair. We’re approaching the yearly opening price—141. I imagine we’re going to get to that very quickly, but be careful of this, this is again another point of confirmation of a trend change. When we break 141.03, now, as

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar

I’ve said with US/Canada , Aussie/US , New Zealand/US , if you’re buying these pairs, if you’re buying Aussie/US and you’re, let’s start with US/Canada first, excuse me, if you’re buying US/Canada , then you believe the stock market will go lower. I don’t believe that, uh, so be careful with that. We have a significant verified resistance high—138.65—another area to be very careful of, guys, of a bull trap up here. I believe there could be one, okay, so be very cautious of buying above that level because if they’re going to run stops, it’s going to be up here. S&P 500 , Nasdaq , all that, those, uh, DAX 30 , they, if they all start turning around Tuesday and Wednesday, then US/Canada is going to drop back to at least our T-cross long, which is coming in at 137.87, uh, that would be our, our line in the sand, uh. I will concede US/Canada has been very bullish this year for a number of different reasons, mainly the Bank of Canada cutting twice, a very sluggish Canadian economy, uh, so again, 132.50, that is potentially a year-end target for us, guys.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

Okay, so again, if those stocks move higher, you’re watching the Aussie/US and the New Zealand/US for potential longs, uh, be, be very mindful of your Monday bar at the end of Monday’s trading, guy. Another little trick I can give you, look at the high and low of the Monday bar, and then on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, look and see how it’s reacted to that Monday bar. Where is the price in relationship to the Monday bar? So when we look at this right now, we’ve got a verified low—6480—I believe we have some potentially good longs coming next week. The points of confirmation from that statement that I just made is not based on under the neural index only, it’s based on the neural index strength with a reverse check mark, an MA diff cross, and the RSI doesn’t have a heartbeat, so we’re, but the other indicators on Vantage Point do, and we connect that with our verified support low.

New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

The same thing would apply to the Kiwi here, guys, and I would argue it was already in progress. The Kiwi was very, very overextended on shorts, and now they’re exiting them. So if we can get above our T-cross long next week at 59.80, I think you have a pretty decent long. So what I’m warning everyone that you need is, you need those stocks to turn around higher and get a little bit of risk on coming back into the market. So again, keep an eye on Bitcoin , keep an eye on the S&P , and they will, inner markets will always guide you in the direction of what the like trend is going to be. So, with that said, this is the CyberFusion5.0 Market Outlook for the week of August the 5th, 2024.

Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

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Okay, hello everyone, and welcome back! My name is Greg Firman, and this is the CyberFusion5.0 Market Outlook for the week of July 29th, 2024.

U.S. Dollar Index

Now, to get started this week, we’ll begin where we always do with that very important US Dollar Index . Now, what we can assess here is the Dollar Index holding below its current quarterly opening price, which I’ve discussed since July 1st, at 105.70. Our T-cross long, which is our main level to determine what is bullish and what is bearish, is not determined by the neural index or some of the other indicators we use. Our core—quarterly, weekly, monthly, and yearly opening price—now the Dollar is still above its yearly opening price, but as you can see, we’ve been very negative in the first part of the quarter, so again, of the third quarter, excuse me. But always remember, this is the fiscal fourth quarter for the US. Usually, the Dollar is strong in the month of September and then we move into that strong seasonal pattern of weakness from mid to late September into early January. But the indicators right now, uh, the move higher this past week, we’ve hit into that T-cross long, our main defining point in the software. We failed; the indicators are warning that we’ve got downside coming again. The predicted RSI basically showing we have momentum building. Now a very heavy, uh, fundamental trading week coming up. We’ve got the Fed —all eyes are going to be on the Fed . Uh, it’s very unlikely that he’s going to cut in July, but I’m pretty sure he’s going to signal multiple cuts are coming following the Bank of Canada, the ECB , and some of the Swiss Bank. Again, following that same, uh, pattern of the other central banks. So right now, I would respectfully submit the Dollar is likely to come under some pressure during that Fed meeting, uh, later this week.

S&P 500 Index

Now, when we look at the equity markets here, now just to clarify, uh, some of the main tools in the Vantage Point software, uh, Vantage Point actually started to forecast the stocks were turning lower on July the 16th.

Now, the neural index is a very short-term indicator, one to three days tops at best. I use it as a daily, uh, tool actually, and as you can see as the market fell on the equity markets, the Ma diff cross took place over here. Now we’ve crossed over the quarterly opening, but we’re not staying below it. So once again, the same thing that warned us of this weakness in the equity market is now pointing towards some strength. The pink line crossing over the blue line or the the Ma diff cross is a classic reversal tool, but again, the neural index, in my respectful opinion, only should be used more specifically with the T-cross long so you always know that way you’ll always know where you are in the current trend. We’re under the T-cross long, uh, so this past week V Point had has not forecasted a strong stock market this past week, but next week is starting to look better if that Ma diff cross can complete, but we must get above the T-cross long at 5517 for any long trade to actually work in this particular setup.

Light Sweet Crude Oil

Now when we look at Light Sweet Crude going into next week, still under pressure here. The normal seasonal pattern would be oil down into August and Natural Gas starting to move higher, uh, but right now we do have that Ma diff cross, but this would be a corrective move higher guys, back to our T-cross long, that’s at 79.54. Now, we can further assess using that current quarterly opening price that Oil has been bearish this for about the last few weeks, or I would argue the better part of the start of the third quarter on July 1st. But there was some buying up here, and then we started to lose that level of the quarterly opening. We broke down below the T-cross long, and at that time, the neural index remained negative for multiple days. Now, if you have a green neural index, that just means we’re correcting higher on that particular day or maybe a day or two out, but it doesn’t, it is not a trend-defining indicator, so to speak. The T-cross long is, or quarterly opening, are yearly opening, the additional Ma diff cross. All of these additional tools need to be factored in because, again, the way the way we want to make sure we’re looking at that is what is the the the current trend in Oil . We look at the seasonal pattern; usually, Oil starts to get softer the closer we get to August and September. So right now, uh, a corrective move to 79.54 is reasonable.

Gold

Now, when we look at Gold Contracts here, now Gold may get a boost this coming week. We’re still positive on the quarter, 23.26. Once again, 20.66 is our yearly opening price, but we really want to hold above 23.66 and get back above our T-cross long at 23.91. Now, in most cases, Gold remains soft until after October 1st and then it slowly starts making gains into year-end. That could come earlier this year if the Fed does signal multiple cuts. So we’ll watch, watch this, but right now we have that infamous reverse check mark down here, which is warning that we’re going to start pushing higher. So again, it’s not so much what the Fed does on Wednesday. We, the highest probability, is that he does nothing, but it’s the press conference you want to watch to see what his plan is going forward. The dot plan, all that stuff is relevant. It’s pretty much baked in that he’s not going to cut, but I will lay out the scenario that it’s possible that he will succumb to the pressure of the recent data, and he does cut, and that would be very, very positive for Gold .

Bitcoin

Now, when we look at the, uh, main Bitcoin Contracts again, uh, the one thing we really have to do, guys, with Bitcoin is just ignore the media. They’re, they seem to be ADD or something. I don’t know what it is, guys, but they just, they’re constantly negative on Bitcoin . Bitcoin has had a phenomenal year last year, up 155%; it’s done very well again this year, and we are likely going to extend higher, but that probably won’t be until mid-October. But for now, we are holding above our T-cross long, 64,0439 is the main, uh, line in the sand. But once again, when we look at these corrective moves down here, when the neural index goes red, then that’s a higher risk trade because we’re above the T-cross long. And always remember, guys, this is an outlook, not a recap of something that’s already happened. So I give these levels each week, but it’s very important to use our inner market correlations and to further use or combine the core Vantage Point indicators. We do not only just look at the neural index or one indicator; we always combine as many of the predicted indicators as we can to get a bias, but the core for me is the T-cross long. So you can see Bitcoin retraced to that on Thursday and then rallied off the same level on Friday. So right now, Bitcoin is looking pretty good; we’re above our quarterly opening price here at 61,933, but the T-cross long, that’s also a big area to keep your eye on going into next week’s trading.

DAX

Now, when we look at some of the European uh, Equity markets, I usually do the Dax for my friends in Germany. So when we look at the Dax here, you can see that this chart mirrors the S&P 500 , and I would argue it’s slightly more bullish. We have an Ma diff cross that has taken place to the upside; we’re holding above our quarterly opening, so it looks good for the Dax to move higher. But make no mistake, the Dax will follow the S&P 500 , the NASDAQ ; they’re, they’re very highly correlated. So what if we’re talking about this coming week, potentially buying equities?

Volatility Index ($VIX)

We want to make sure we’re looking at the Vix , because I talked about the, the Vix , excuse me, several weeks ago and warned that if we break above that yearly opening price, then the equity markets are going to have a problem. And that’s right at the time that we got the Ma diff cross on the S&P 500 around July the 16th. So I just wanted to clarify that point, that, Vantage point was actually forecasting stocks to go lower over the last, uh, I would argue, over the last week and a half, almost two weeks. But for now, the Vix has a very clear sell signal. The Ma diff cross, the medium-term diff over the long-term diff, is warning us that the Vix is getting ready to drop. So again, this being an outlook, not a recap of something that’s already taken place, we can prepare for that. The volatility will be the non-farm payroll number and, of course, the **Fed**, which will be coming on Wednesday.

Euro versus U.S. Dollar

Now, when we look at some of our main * Forex * pairs again, we could have a decent week coming up here, with some Dollar selling. It all depends on what we get, uh, what the outlook for the Fed is going to be. So the main, the first thing we want to look at would be the Euro-US pair because that is the highest inverse correlation to the Dollar Index . So right now, you can see that the Euro is slowly starting to rebound. So our T-cross long 108.49, the indicators in VP are slowly grinding higher, the neural index strength. But remember, guys, that’s a short-term indicator; we must combine that neural index with a longer-term predicted moving average, or even a medium-term predicted moving average like the T cross long. So if we click on the f8, you can see that every single day it’s banging into this level. So if we can break above 108.63, the Euro could continue its advance towards the 110.38 area. And some, but not all, of the predicted indicators are in agreement on that.

U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc

Now, the US-Swiss Franc again, still under pressure, even with, uh, some Dollar strength this past week. Shorts, I believe, are the, the best play here while below 89.72, and the T cross long at 89.05. But it will be volatile next week, uh, you can pretty much bank on that. But the indicators very much flat or neutral, not a lot of activity on this particular pair.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar

But the Pound-Dollar did see quite a bit of activity. So we’re right coming into that sweet spot of the buy zone here. You can see how the quarterly opening, the yearly opening price, they’re all stacked in here together. So again, even if we break down below 128.72, our T-cross long, our additional buy areas would be down to 126.39. The indicators, we just need them turning over, uh, is what we really need, because as you can see, the predicted differences across the zero line, that is definitely a problem. So but if we can get them turning back up, we’ve got again, another reverse check mark on that predicted RSI is warning that that is possible. So a very dovish Fed should easily send this pair higher, but be careful of the non-farm payroll number, also on Friday.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen

Now, with the US-Japan for next week, again, uh, you can see that we’ve got a little bit of support down here at the low 153.12. It’s, uh, as the interest rate differential changes between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, it somewhat favors the Yen , but again, it’s the Dollar is still a high yielder, even with the Fed cuts, and Japan is still basically negative rates here. So the indicators right now, pretty much running flat, uh, not looking overly dovish or, or excuse me, not looking overly bearish or hawkish, just kind of flat. Potential retracement back to the T cross, this this week prior to the Fed announcement, then we are likely to start moving grinding again.

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar

Now, the next three currency pairs that I’m going to show you guys are, basically, uh, believe it or not, are an equity trade. And what I mean by that is that these pairs feed off the S&P 500 . The odd but more specifically the, the individual currencies, the New Zealand , the Kiwi , and the Canadian Dollar , are all very susceptible to movements in the equity markets, more specifically the S&P .

So if the S&P 500 turns next week to the upside, this will push US-Canada back down. I believe that that is what will happen because again, this is an outlook, not a recap of something that’s already happened. We’re looking at trading levels while the markets are actually closed before they’ve even opened on Sunday night. So right now, I anticipate we can potentially get a retracement back down to 137.33. And if we can break that level and the quarterly opening, I believe by year-end, we could target the 132.50 area. But for next week, that’s what we’re looking for. Um, there is substantial resistance above 138 on this particular pair. The indicators, right there, there is an MA diff cross, again, right there. You have a long period of a green neural index. So if you’re using the neural index, you’re using it with the T-cross long. And you can see, as long as we’re hanging closing above that TR cross long, the neural index is green; we continue to buy. Okay, now, I could say that for, for uh, Monday’s trading, and I believe it will go up a little bit, but I also believe it will move lower on Tuesday and Wednesday, and that Ma diff cross is telling me that the medium-term trend against the longer-term trend is actually weakening.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

So maybe some good opportunity for the Forex traders, but make no mistake, guys, if US-Canada moves lower, Aussie-US will move higher. Now, it’s taken a beating this last week, mainly because of that selloff that was that Vantage Point did forecast ahead of time, that selloff in the equity markets, uh, the, you can see the Aussie responded the same way as the Canadian Dollar , but the Aussie is the base currency, US-Canada the US Dollar is the base currency, and Canada is the quote currency. So it’s the same trade, just inverse. So again, if US , if the equity markets rebound, which I believe they will on the Fed , then Aussie could be a very good buying opportunity down here, after this, after they flushed the markets out. But we also want to take note the importance of the yearly opening price because that’s where this all failed right along here. You can see, 3 days in a row, it stalled just below the 2024 yearly opening price, a very powerful non-indicator. Then we combine that with the VP indicators, right there, just like on the S&P 500 , warned us that this was going to move lower. It turned down, but now, the same signal that would have a short, this is now telling us we’re going higher, that pink line crossing the blue line.

New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

The Kiwi , same deal, guys. You can see that selloff, and now we’re starting to see the predicted differences rise. The predicted RSI, as you can see here, is extremely low, and this is why we don’t use overbought/oversold methodologies; we, we look for momentum with a break of the 40 level on the predicted RSI, that that is, and below the T-cross long. But you can see, we still have day-positive days with a green neural index, and we actually for one day did move higher, but then it immediately turned back to red. But the core thing that you want to remember here always measure the market, whether it’s above or below the T-cross long, to help filter out false signals and identify the primary trend. In this case, with Kiwi , we’re below the yearly, we’re below the quarterly, and the monthly, and we stayed below the weekly opening the entire week, guys. So that’s what we’re looking for in identifying using multiple predictive indicators. So, with that said, this is the CyberFusion5.0 Market Outlook for the week of July the 29th, 2024.

Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

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Okay, hello everyone, and welcome back! My name is Greg Firman, and this is the CyberFusion5.0 Market Outlook for the week of July 22nd, 2024.

U.S. Dollar Index

Now, to get started this week, we’ll begin with the US Dollar Index . Again, when we look at the dollar, it’s important to remember that we are in the US fiscal fourth quarter where the dollar is usually stronger from mid-August through to the end of September and then it turns. So once again, we’re holding below our very important quarterly opening price at 105.70. This is a critical level of resistance that the dollar must overtake if it has any chance of moving higher.

Now again, rate cuts now appear imminent, likely two to three rate cuts. It’s almost guaranteed now for September, with November and December being the ones that will affect the dollar. But either way, guys, the dollar usually sells off at the end of that fiscal fourth quarter, which is again October 1st. The indicators here in Vantage Point are rising, suggesting this is a corrective move back to our T cross long at 104.71. We have to overtake that to get to our quarterly opening, which comes in at 105.70. But that’s likely where the dollar will fail either way.

Gold

Now, on this dollar strength, we can see that gold once again in the Vantage Point live training room. I’ve discussed this, and we’re exiting gold longs anywhere above 2460; we’re out of this. So, we’ve had a full retrace here back to our T cross long at 2392. In most calendar years, the seasonal pattern in gold starts after October and gold is strong right into January of the following year. So, I do expect further downside on gold, but 2326, our current quarterly opening price, is very important.

Now, the reason I’m emphasizing the quarterly opening is because we have a first, second, third, and fourth quarter very similar to weather patterns, where we have spring, summer, winter, and fall, and there are patterns that fall in each one of those: rain, snow, heat, all these things. But in the financial markets, it’s very similar. So again, when we look at this, it doesn’t surprise me that a bull trap was set up here on gold up near this high at 2449. Now, we could rebound off of the T cross long; that is still possible, but the Vantage Point indicators are pointing towards breaking the T cross long and likely heading back to 2326. But to emphasize, gold longs are absolutely in play after mid-September, guys.

S&P 500 Index

Now, when we look at the equity markets here using the S&P 500 , everything basically responds to that dollar. Now, with that dollar strength, we have lower gold prices, lower oil prices, and lower equities. So, we have crossed over our T cross long, but the line in the sand for next week, guys, because again, this is a weekly outlook, one week only, not a monthly or a quarterly outlook—it’s every week. So right now, 5471 is a critical level of support that most traders never see or use. If we break down below that quarterly opening, then we’re bearish, and that would be reasonable, respecting the fact that we are in the US fiscal fourth quarter where there is real dollar demand in the month of September. So, I do anticipate further downside on the equity markets, but we want to watch this level very closely around this quarter because we would have to break down.

Now, we do have a short-term crossover, a medium-term crossover, which is the predicted difference crossing the zero line, and momentum on the predicted RSI breaking the 40 level, showing that there could be momentum building to the downside here. So again, we’ll continue to watch this, but the indicator that I will take note of is the neural index strength indicator, where we can internally see inside that neural index, and it’s starting to reverse back up. So keep an eye on that level for next week and be careful of a potential bull trap below that 5471 area.

DAX 30

When we do a comparative to the DAX 30 , the European equities, we can see that they’re identical—almost the exact same trade, the sell-off happening at the same time. This is evidence that the global markets are becoming globally connected. So, with the DAX moving lower, we’ve got a break of our quarterly opening price that’s coming in at 1823. This would suggest to me that it is imminent the S&P 500 is going to break below its quarterly opening. The question is, can both stay below that? You can see the predicted differences are the same, but in this scenario, with this dark colored blue line crossing the zero line, we actually have a short, medium, and long-term crossover. So, is it possible the European equities are the direct correlation or the warning that the S&P, the NASDAQ, and some of the major US indices are going to move lower also? That is entirely possible. We do have momentum building here. So again, the next verified support low is going to come in at 1790, but we must hold below this 18236 to confirm that shorts are in play. But that is a reasonable play given the proximity to October 1st that the equities are likely going to struggle here.

Volatility Index ($VIX)

Now, when we do a comparative analysis to the VIX , we can see that the VIX has broken its yearly opening price. We’re firmly above our T cross long. This is the strongest warning that the equity markets could be under pressure next week and for the remainder of July and potentially August. So again, the VIX yearly opening price, the VIX is officially turned positive on the year at 1501. As long as we’re holding above 1501, then there is going to be a problem with the major indices. The one thing I will note here is the predicted RSI at 91.9. So definitely, one could say a little bit overbought, but an overbought/oversold signal doesn’t carry as much weight as it used to in the current markets with the algorithmic programs, quantitative analysis, and a number of different things where these programs will buy high and they will sell low. But again, the VIX is a leading indicator as to the health of the equity markets, and this is suggesting the equities are in a little bit of trouble here.

Bitcoin

Now, when we look at Bitcoin , once again, Bitcoin is completely ignoring the other markets and extending higher. Now, we do have some verified resistance, a verified resistance high that’s coming in at about 67014.7. That’s our immediate resistance for next week. Our T cross long that’s coming in at 617, our quarterly opening, very important, 6163.3, that’s our support level for next week. That’s actually our support level for the remainder of the quarter, guys, and this is why it’s important to use indiscriminate indicators that are price-based also with the market analysis tools because we always want to know where we are. Because the media will constantly spin this that, like they did the other week with Bitcoin, Bitcoin’s going lower, Bitcoin’s going to sell off because of what’s happening with the Euro Bitcoin exchanges. None of that was relevant, guys. It was a trick to get you to short or exit your longs, and then Bitcoin goes higher. So, by year-end, the main seasonal pattern with Bitcoin is between mid to late September and mid-November, with October being a very hot month for Bitcoin. So, it looks like they’re moving in on this already to get long. The indicators, my only little bit of concern here is that MA diff cross here picked up on something. Now, that was this week, not last week. So again, a little bit of concern there. But as long as what we’re really looking for is that T cross long to cross over our quarterly opening price at 61933, and that is a very bullish play. But it is very interesting that you can see that money is going into Bitcoin and not going into gold. You still have China and India buying gold as they’ve always been, but the reality is somebody much bigger is buying Bitcoin, and the likelihood that we move towards that 100,000 mark by year-end is a viable target here, guys. That’s the best I can say.

Light Sweet Crude Oil

Now, light sweet crude oil , when we look at light sweet crude oil, once again, in my respectful opinion only, the direct inverse correlation is to natural gas. So, if oil is moving lower, there’s a strong seasonal pattern that begins right around now on natural gas, and this is actually confirming that. We’ve lost our T cross long, we’ve lost our quarterly opening. We’re still bullish on the year at 7178, but I believe that it’s possible that natural gas is causing this, and this is the power of the intermarket technical analysis that even if this trade doesn’t work, it points us to another trade. Now, I concede that there’s supply issues with natural gas and everything else, but the fact remains the last five years in a row, natural gas has gone up at this time and it has an inverse correlation to oil. So further downside here is very likely on our oil contracts, but again, we need to hold below 8086, the current quarterly opening. But now we can see that our T cross long is interwoven with that quarterly opening, and that puts oil on the bearish spectrum for at least this current quarter.

Euro versus U.S. Dollar

Now, when we look at the main Forex pairs, EUR/USD immediately reacting to the dollar moving higher, gold very strong in positive correlation between the Euro and gold. Both backed off, and you can see that the Euro fell at the same time. But I will point out, guys, the Euro has never been positive on the year. It’s been very good longs this last few weeks and several

times this year we’ve had good longs, but the primary trend is down. That’s just the reality of this. 11038 is the yearly opening price for this pair, and it simply was unable to break above it at any time during the calendar year. Now, the quarterly opening is important to us. We have good support at around 10732, so if we can get down to this area, that would be potentially a buying opportunity. But again, that dollar usually is strong in its fiscal fourth quarter, which ends again October 1st. I will keep repeating this, guys, so there’s no confusion around this. Very often that dollar, regardless of rate hikes, rate cuts, all these things, still tanks on October 1st. There are very few years where that has not happened. So right now, a retracement is likely. Our immediate target is the T cross long at 10841, but between 10841 and 10732, I believe that there’s a reasonable long trade there still. We just need to let it push down a little bit lower as the market, as the bigger players start buying dollars in the month of September.

U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc

Now, USD/CHF slightly responding positively to this, but as you can see, we may have a double bottom forming here at the low 8827. But regardless of dollar strength, most of your bigger players are moving into the Swiss franc, not the yen, not the dollar. So right now, there is an MA diff cross suggesting further dollar strength against the Swiss franc, but that would be a retracement to 8942. Longs are reasonable, just know your levels, guys. 8942, excuse me, and then the quarterly opening at 8972, that’s where our immediate resistance comes in for next week. If we break above that, then we’re likely going to see that dollar strength form going into mid-August and into mid-September area, which is possible. But that would still be a corrective move with the dollar ultimately moving lower in October.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar

Now, GBP/USD had a very strong run this past week, as did the Euro, but the pound was much stronger. So, we’ve put a top in up here for now. That’s 13044, that’s our immediate resistance. And then you can see we have stacked support with our quarterly opening down to 12639, our yearly opening at 12732. This is very, very powerful support down here. The T cross long, as you can see, as we crossed the yearly opening and cleared, we actually never went below the current quarterly opening, not for very long anyway, first day or two, and then we’ve extended higher. So, I believe we have more downside momentum coming on this pair, and again, we would monitor that. But the first downside target, which is likely to be hit early next week, would be 12854, the T cross long. We can then reassess to the yearly opening price and the quarterly opening, but ultimately, buying near 12732 and 12639 is a reasonable play.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen

Now, USD/JPY is finally succumbing to the yen rebounding somewhat here, but we’re still at 157. The fear of intervention is still there, but right now the VP indicators, right or wrong, good, bad, or indifferent, intervention, no intervention, are saying that this pair is getting ready to go higher again. So once again, I would strongly advise to keep an eye on these critical levels. 10672 is the quarterly opening on this pair, and the T cross long at 15886. These are our retracement points, guys, but we are not buyers on this pair above 160 with pending dollar weakness coming in late September, early October. Okay, so we’ve got to make sure we understand where these levels are, and that fear of intervention from the Bank of Japan is still lingering. I don’t know if it’ll have much effect, but as the Fed starts to cut, the carry trade will come unwound. If the Fed ends up cutting three times this year, that should knock the dollar/yen back into the 130 area by year-end. We’ll see. That’s a big move, but remember it’s made an extremely big move to the upside at levels I’ve never seen before above 160. So again, I think we can buy up as long as we know where our upside targets are.

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar

Now, the Canadian dollar is definitely under pressure here, and that is because of two things: the equity markets going lower, gold prices going lower, and oil prices going lower. All three of those correlate to the Canadian dollar. So right now, we’ve got some weakness. I think that it’s reasonable that we can move up towards the high around 138, where we would be sellers in anticipation of pending dollar weakness a month and a half from now, maybe two at the most. So, I don’t think we want to get too heavily long up here. The immediate resistance that we’re going to look at is going to come in at the high of 13755, then we have multiple verified resistance highs coming in at again right around this 13759 area, 13792. So the immediate one we’re looking at is 13755, excuse me, and I believe we’ll hit that early in the week. But always remember, I’ve discussed the Monday-Tuesday reversal in the VP live training room and throughout these seminars, or webinars, excuse me. A Monday-Tuesday reversal is very powerful on US/Canada, regardless of what the trend is, meaning if it goes screaming higher on Monday, it’s likely going to give up 50% of that on Tuesday. And if it goes screaming lower on Monday, it’s likely going to go considerably higher on Tuesday. This is something I play almost every single week, and it has a very high win rate. So be careful of this pair. The lesson there is to be careful of this pair, but the T cross long intersecting with that quarterly opening at 13672 is now becoming very formidable support here. So watch that level closely.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

Now, with the AUD and the NZD , I am a firm believer in buying on dips on this pair, but they will both come under pressure from lower equities—the S&P, the DAX, those going lower. When they turn, the Aussie and the Kiwi will turn back up. That’s the intermarket correlation you want to keep your eyes on, guys, right now. So the Aussie dollar is coming down and approaching that quarterly opening, but the real thing we want to look at, guys, and this is a great demonstration, is the current yearly opening price is 6812 for the Aussie. The Aussie has never been above that level, and the second it got—well, no, actually that was 2023. So you can see the calendar year started, and this is the strongest retracement we’ve had. So on this pullback, again, the closer we get to mid-September, the more attractive longs on AUD/USD and NZD/USD are because, again, even if we look at the US dollar as a reserve currency, it’s been declining as a reserve currency, and they’ve been actually—the powers that be—have been buying the Canadian dollar, the Aussie dollar, the Korean won, the Chinese currency. It’s very interesting. So there is a lot of value in buying these pairs if you’re a long-term trader. But if you want to wait a little bit longer, then I can almost say to a degree of certainty, about 80%, that the AUD/USD and NZD/USD go up by late September into October, November, and December. It’s a standard play based on dollar weakness. So right now, that is our key level 6676. If we break down below that and stay below that, then we are likely going to return into the lower 65 area, but that would be probably short-lived. I anticipate it to stabilize. The same with the Kiwi, guys, almost identical. You can see that we’re failing along. The Kiwi is clearly the weaker of these two, hence the AUD/NZD , which I’ve shown on here in the past. When we look at the AUD/NZD , again, I think there’s better value in buying NZD/USD than there is in AUD/USD , but that is often dictated by this cross, this extremely useful cross pair, AUD/NZD . So we have a lighter docket with data next week, but with that, there’ll still come opportunities.

So, with that said, this is the CyberFusion5.0 Market Outlook for the week of July 22nd, 2024.

Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

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Okay, hello everyone, and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the CyberFusion5.0 Market Outlook for the week of July 15, 2024.

U.S. Dollar Index

To get started this week, we’ll begin where we always do with that very important US Dollar Index . Now, the dollar is under selling pressure, which I’ve talked about for several months now. The FED is basically being backed into a corner and is going to likely have to cut here sooner rather than later. Traders are picking up on this at the beginning of July as we start moving lower. VantagePoint is forecasting the Dollar Index to move lower on or about July 3rd, which I’ve discussed, but now we’re coming into some verified support here, with that low coming in at 103.99. That’s the immediate support for this particular week.

So remember, the dollar is still in an uptrend while we’re above 103.37. But again, there’s mounting selling pressure. The indicators are confirming that we’re a little bit oversold here at 11.3 on the predicted RSI, but we’ve just come off a retracement on the predicted RSI back to the 40 level. We’ve hit our T cross long, and we’re down again.

So, it’s a rather light week next week with retail sales. I don’t think that’s going to be a huge driver, but again, I would also warn everybody that in most cases the dollar is strong in their fiscal fourth quarter, which ends on October 1st. So I’m looking for some dollar strength, but probably not until about mid-August into September. But we will still have good two-way action between longs and shorts. For now, there is a bias against the dollar based on the indicators and the breakdown below our T cross long.

Gold

Gold has very easily responded to that dollar weakness, moving higher off of our T cross long. Our key support level for next week will be 2357.92, with our monthly opening price at 2326. We’re long well above that. The structural bias of Gold looks far better than the US Dollar here. The indicators are a little bit mixed, but any corrective moves we can use our F8 and our software to come down to our long predicted level at 2384. So, good buying between 2353 and 2384.

S&P 500 Index

Now, stocks for next week with the S&P are definitely riding the wave off the anticipated Fed rate cuts here. The indicators are still bullish. The MA diff cross is a bit of a concern as we’ve crossed over down, but the predicted RSI is sitting in a good position. Neural index strength looks good, and again the new quarterly opening price is kind of a big area there, guys. 5471 is what we’re looking to hold, preferably above that. Our monthly opening is at 5471.

And again, a very good year so far. We’re sitting at 4745 on the yearly opening price. But nothing goes straight up and nothing goes straight down. We should see some kind of corrective move, but that’s likely going to be contained by the T cross long at 5519. Again, for day traders, we can use our F8. You can see we’re riding every single day. We’re in contact with the VP long predicted, which is in a very good position for Monday’s trading, with the predicted low at 5584. But again, we should be cautious. Even though we are high, it doesn’t mean it can continue.

Bitcoin

Now, when we look at Bitcoin , a slow buy signal is starting to form here. The only thing stopping the Bitcoin contracts from extending higher is the T cross long, and that current level right now is coming in at about 59,381. Very, very strong support down to about 53,963. We came down this past week to 54 and we saw buying. So again, we can actually put a trend line on this. Very easy to put a trend line on this. We can see if we go like that, we’ve got a downside trend line there. So once again, we’re looking for the TR cross long to break. That’s now 59,381. If we break that, then we can extend higher. That’s the move I would be looking for. But again, we’ve got to get back. A minimum retracement here would be 61933, which is our quarterly opening. Then we would reassess. But again, our MA diff cross is warning us that we are getting ready to go higher. We’ve got a short-term crossover, and a medium-term crossover appears imminent. But the T cross long, again guys, 59381, that’s the level we must break.

DAX

Now, when we look at that in comparison to the European equities, you can see the European equities still doing quite well, extending following the US Equities higher. Everything looks good for the Dax to extend. Very strong resistance up at the 18855 mark. If we can break through there, we can extend higher. But that, in my respectful opinion only, will depend if the US Equities can continue to advance. The indicators do look pretty good, but a retracement certainly could be in the cards. We would keep a very close eye on the VIX to see if we have any signal here that suggests that could happen. We do have an MA diff cross to the upside, but we’re not getting any buying down here. But again, that is something to be concerned with. The additional indicators in VP are suggesting we still have further downside, but it’s a mixed signal here. So be very, very cautious in this coming week.

Euro versus U.S. Dollar

Now, when we look at some of our main Forex pairs, the Euro US, the number one traded Forex pair, once again, we want to avoid the media noise. They said that the Euro would sell off because of the European elections. None of that came to fruition, guys. The inverse correlation between the Euro and the Dollar Index is about 99.9%. So, the Dollar Index down, the Euro goes up, despite what they believe is going to happen with these elections.

When we look at the main indicators, there is some concern here with MA diff cross, but the dollar being under pressure is pushing the Euro higher. 11038 would be our upside target, which is the current yearly opening price that this pair has been below the entire calendar year. We need to break above that area if we’re going to extend higher. That is the area that I would be targeting. But make sure you’re taking profit on the way up here, guys, because again, there are just as many issues in Europe as there are everywhere else. We need to break through that particular level.

But for next week, again, our T cross long is 108. There’s significant support there. If we click on our F8 in our VP software, we get that additional support of the long predicted 108.44. So, for Monday’s low, we’re looking at a pullback to about 108.74. I think we can pull back a little deeper than that and we can reassess because we’ve got 89.3 on the predicted RSI. We do have an MA diff cross to the downside, so the pair could be responding to the softer CPI data. The PPI data was a little bit stronger, but not enough to move the needle on dollar weakness. So again, just be mindful that if we can’t hold this level up here, we could be looking at a deeper retracement to the 107.32 area.

U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc

Now, the US Swiss Franc again continues as I had stated last week. We just don’t have any buyers on this particular pair. More money is moving into the Swiss Franc than the dollar for now, potentially for a flight to safety here, but really just sideways action as we move into summer trade. The T cross long is at 8973. We need to break through that level, but as you can see, the predicted differences are all pointing down. We’ve broken the second breach of the 40 level of the predicted RSI, and in most cases, this is a real move to the downside. So, the likelihood that we move lower next week is very, very strong, probably 70 to 80%.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar

Now, the Pound Dollar has managed to clear its current yearly opening price yet again. But our main area, the one thing that I find very interesting about this, is our T cross long has crossed over our yearly opening price, and in most cases, that’s a pretty bull move. You can see we tried to do that back in early June, late May, but we couldn’t hold it and it went back down. But a very shallow retracement, and we’ve moved up aggressively now. So when we look at this, we always want to make sure we’re backing our VP charts out a little bit to see if we see any other verified resistance. High 12862, there is a level up there. So be a little bit cautious of a bull trap up here. But again, I don’t see any real big recovery in the dollar till probably early September, mid-August. But once again, the market is reacting to that CPI data, and it could be a false break. But right now, the most recent verified resistance high is 12860. We want to make sure we’re holding above that area. When we click on our F8, we can further assess that our long predicted 12868. That’s the area we want to keep an eye on. Very strong close, almost at the 130. It’s been a while since the Pound ‘s been up this high, guys, and I think it has room to extend. A little bit of a concern with that predicted RSI at 92.6, suggesting we could get a pullback, but that would be a buying opportunity if nothing else.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen

Now, we have a lot of eyes on the Dollar Yen as it’s finally pushing lower. Once again, we talked about this one in last week’s Outlook, that I would anticipate some type of Japan intervention. This is a pretty solid sell signal on this, but guys, this is the carry trade, and you have a lot of traders that do not want to exit this long trade because of the interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan and the Fed. So again, right now, I think our next verified support low is 154.55. We could hit that level very quickly if the market believes the FED is going to have to cut more than once this year. So, July is not really much of a wild card. He could do a cut, but I think it’s very unlikely. September, November, December, I could see a minimum of two cuts, maybe three. But again, if it were me, I would have already cut twice this year based on the data.

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar

Now, the US Canadian pair again is going to be a tricky week for the Canadian dollar here. We’re just hovering below our T cross long. We’ve got our quarterly opening at 136.72, the monthly matches that, and the yearly is at 132.50. So, in order to move to 132.50, we’ve got to break down out of this area here and make a clean break of it. Now that could be tricky because, again, we want to make sure we’re looking closely at oil.

Light Sweet Crude Oil

And oil right now again has a very high correlation to the US Canadian pair. So if Crude Oil , which still has a pretty strong signal to it, can move higher, then that would push US Canada towards the 132.50 area in the weeks ahead. So a lot is riding on stocks and oil going high. Commodities in general going higher, and as you can see, there is another buy signal forming on oil right off of RT cross long at 81.75. So in theory, that should put downward pressure on this particular pair. All of our resistance for next week is at 136.72. Any break above that or near that area is likely a pretty decent short. Now our predicted high for Monday with Vantage Point is 136.83, so a significant amount of resistance up there, but a very mixed bag in indicators, guys. The neural index, the neural index strength, and we have an MA diff cross to the upside, but it’s corrective to the upside unless we break through and stay above the 137 area.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

Now, the Aussie is again advancing pretty strong. But once again, guys, this is not subjective; it’s an objective number, 68.12. Yes, the Aussie looks bullish by this chart, but it’s actually still bearish on the year. If it’s going to fail, it will be at 68.12 or just above that area. But if we get above this area, then we have the opportunity for fresh longs, potentially longer-term buys on this particular pair. If we look at it over a 4-year period, you can see that the Aussie is grossly undervalued at this particular level. If we come back further than that and we look back in the 5 to 10 year mark, it wasn’t that long ago where this pair was trading above parity. So again, that’s something to consider and keep your eye on. You can see at 97 cents. So, I think we do have some opportunity here. We just need confirmation. We need to stay above that T cross long and our monthly opening price, but the main thing we need to do is break through that yearly opening price at 68.12 and stay above that, and that would start a new trend. This is why we want to avoid that rolling performance model, guys, because we don’t want to move the goalpost. We want to know if this pair is bullish or bearish on the year. The answer is bearish. It has bullish momentum, but in order for it to actually be bullish on the year, we’ve got to get above 68.12.

New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

The same thing would apply to the Kiwi here, but the Kiwi , in my respectful opinion only, is better value. And if the Aussie breaks above its yearly opening price, we have a significant gap between where we are in the Kiwi right now and its yearly opening price at 68.18. So, I believe again, this could show up in Australia New Zealand this coming week. When we look at is it possible the Aussie could rise after that data last week? I believe it is possible. We have indicators here that are suggesting there’s weakness forming in the Australia New Zealand pair. So, if that’s the case, that would slightly weaken the Aussie around its yearly opening price and push the New Zealand in US higher. So it very much is like a chess game with some of these pairs and some of the different commodities to understand how they really work.

So with that said, this is the CyberFusion5.0 Market Outlook for the week of July 15, 2024.

Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

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Okay, hello everyone, and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the CyberFusion5.0 Market Outlook for the week of July 1st, 2024.

U.S. Dollar Index

Now, to get started this week, we’ll begin where we usually do with that very important US Dollar Index . Now, the needle has not moved much on the FED Fund Futures bets; we’re still looking out towards September, November, December for those, but that could drastically change this coming Friday with the payroll number. I don’t think the FED minutes will really affect much, but the payroll number on Friday is very important because we’ve seen a lot of weaker numbers, and if the Fed sees that, it could change the bets for an earlier cut in September or multiple cuts going forward. So our key levels in our VP software are T cross long coming in at 10545. Basically, we’re running almost flat. The US Dollar again is normally strong at the very end of the month into the first week of the new month, up to and including the non-farm payroll number, and then usually sells off the Tuesday afterwards. So our key support is 10545. If we click on our F8 on our Vantage Point software, we can see very clearly that the market is hugging that very important long predicted. Also, every single day this past week, you can see that the market has come down, hit that level, and then moved higher with the neural index and the neural index strength. So once again, that level is now 10581.

So support, and again, for the Dollar to continue to advance, you have to have hotter inflation data. This is not a technical picture; it’s a fundamental one. So once again, we’ll monitor the data that comes out this week. I believe we have some other inflation data, but those are the key levels to watch, and right now, we’re basically just running sideways with a slight upward bias. Now again, our most recent high is around 10632. Regardless of the data, I anticipate these levels to hold, and that would be a very good selling opportunity up there.

Gold

Now, Gold contracts, once again, Gold is basically dead flat. We had a little bit of a push lower but immediately recovered on last week’s softer inflation data. Again, a fundamental trade here, guys; it’s not all about technical levels. It’s also about fundamentals that drive the market, like the Fed or the inflation data. So right now, Gold remains firm. A test down to the 2233 area pre-non-farm payroll number can’t be ruled out, but once again, when we combine the levels—and again, this is a weekly outlook, guys, not a daily—so I tend to shy away from the shorter-term indicators, but I do have them on screen with the neural index, the MA diff cross, and our predicted RSI. But for now, 2233 still cannot be ruled out. If we click on our F8 in the software, we can see that we’ve overtaken 2319, but we must stay above this level, guys, if Gold is going to advance higher. The indicators are still slightly negative on the predicted differences; the predicted RSI is saying we have little to no upward momentum, but again, that can change very quickly based around that inflation data next week. So we’ll keep an eye on it. Gold is still a little bit soft at the current time.

S&P 500 Index

Now, when we look at the stocks going into next week, the S&P 500 shows relentless buying. Now for our key levels for next week, I do anticipate stocks will pull back next week; they usually do leading up to that payroll number. So our key support level is 5420. Indicators are actually pointing down, which is consistent with this time of the month, guys. That’s the key point: that Dollar cycle or dollar buying indirectly usually softens the stocks at the end of the month into the first few days of the new month. So right now, that T cross long—we want to make sure we’re also looking at that. And as you can see, we’re giving that up a little bit, but a very effective trading methodology is also using the long-term crossover without the black line, just the blue line. That’s all we need to see, and we can assess that the market is in daily contact with this particular level. So for Monday, our predicted low for the day is 5448 and our long predicted is 5466. So for day trading, that’s what we would look at. But we do have a gap down to 5420 on the S&P . So again, unless we break down and stay below 5420, buying on a dip is still the preferred strategy.

Bitcoin

Now, with Bitcoin for next week, Bitcoin is under pressure again, but once again, we’ve got very strong support down here at 57,000. The next big move on Bitcoin is usually the end of September and October, a very good month for buying Bitcoin . So we are officially going into summer trading; I don’t expect a lot of fireworks from Bitcoin next week. But again, buying on the dip is once again a preferred strategy, given the powerful trend of this particular being up 155% approximately last year and well up this year too. Our yearly opening price there is 42501, so unless we get down below there, any move towards this area would be again a buying opportunity. The indicators are mixed, but we do have signs of life here. But I anticipate Bitcoin to be a little bit soft going forward because of that Dollar buying that we’re likely going to see next week.

DAX

Now, when we do a comparative to the European equity markets with the DAX , you can see that the DAX is starting to rebound off that current quarterly opening. Now, we’re going to have a new quarterly opening price for next week’s outlook. That’s very, very important. Each time we start a new quarter, a trend usually develops here, and I would argue in this particular scenario that it would likely be an upward trend. We can see the predicted differences are moving above the zero; we’ve got momentum, upward momentum, building on the predicted RSI. We just need to get above that T cross long at 18,287. Now, with the French elections, there’s going to be volatility in the DAX , but like any other fundamental event, it will pass. Now, when we click on our F8 here, you can see that we’ve crossed over our long predicted level, 18,197. We use that pretty much that exact same level, 18,216, as your buying opportunity. So for Monday’s trading, the predicted low is coming in at 18,194, and that matches our predicted low. So these two levels—excuse me, 18216 on the long predicted and the daily coming in at 18,194—are side by side, and that’s what we look for, guys, in a day trade or even in a trend, potentially a trend reversal. But make no mistake, the DAX is very firm on the year while we’re above 16,828.

VIX

Now again, looking at that comparative in the VIX , we always want to make sure we’re keeping an eye on this because it could be a leading indicator, often is for the dollar, stocks, even commodities, but mainly equities. So right now, we’ve got some verified support—the verified support low approximately going back to May 21st. Then we have another one on May 28th and additional support coming in on June 12. So that’s all coming in down around the low of 13,000, approximately 13.85 on that share price. So again, you can see some buying coming in here, and the indicators are starting to rebound, but it’s only a corrective move, guys, unless we get above our T cross long at 14,030, or excuse me, 14037, and then our yearly opening price—very, very important—15001. We would need to clear that to see the equities come under pressure. Now again, the indicators are slightly mixed but still mainly pointing towards weakness in the VIX .

Euro versus U.S. Dollar

Now, when we get into some of our main forex pairs for next week, starting with our main one, EUR/USD —all eyes are going to be on that with the French election, the Dollar Index , the payroll number, and I believe we also have a Fed speak next week too, so quite the combination of inflation numbers, payroll numbers, and Fed speak. It’s going to be choppy. So right now, the Euro —and I will concede this point clearly—is in a downtrend in 2024. That is a fact. There’s our opening price: 11038. But I also think that the Dollar gains will be limited, very limited, into year-end. The Dollar usually rallies in part of August and September, and then that’s the end of it for the year. So probably a little bit more downside on the Euro here. Our T cross long is 10738; we’re short while below that. If we click on our F8 in our software, this is where it gets a little sticky. That long predicted is 10706, and we have a number of three verified zones almost in the same area here that are building up, and that’s right around 10660. So in my respectful opinion only, there is good two-way action on this: buying lower into that mid-106 area and then selling above 107 appears to be the main play. But I do think we are going to see a bigger move coming this week in the **Euro**, but again, that’s a fundamental event with the payroll, the French elections, and if any of the inflation data is going to move the needle on those Fed fund futures. That’s what we need to see. So again, right now, if we can get above 10706 and stay above it, and the indicators in VP are starting to rise, then there could be some longs on the * Euro *, but I believe we are a week or 10 days away from that actually happening, or not until we at least get that payroll number on Friday.

U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc

Now, USD/CHF is trying to make a move again. It crossed over our T cross long last week, but now, once again, we’re going to get all new updates—a new monthly opening price, a new quarterly opening price. So it’s kind of an important week. But it’s showing strength in the US Dollar against the Swiss Franc . Another instance where the Swiss National Bank caught the markets off guard again by cutting. But the question remains, why is the Fed not cutting? This is the point: even once, like the ECB, and now the ECB is refusing to cut again till they see what the Fed’s going to do. So this is all about central banks here, guys, but ultimately, they’re all going to be cutting; nobody’s hiking. And that’s the way we’ve got to look at it. So the Dollar is running fairly firm, but it is on borrowed time here, especially in an election year. So right now, that monthly opening price is coming in at or about 9034—that’s your resistance for next week—and your support is our T cross long at 8957. And again, if we click on our F8 in our VP, you can see using that long predicted, the long-term crossover with just the blue line, we’re getting some good movement, good daily buying off that, guys. And for Monday’s trading, we’ve got our predicted low at 8968; that almost matches that long predicted at 8960. So it gives us a very clear picture as to where that support is but also where the resistance is.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar

Now, GBP/USD is once again recovering somewhat, but we’ve fallen slipped below 12732. So from a technical picture or a price action-based one, it’s still bearish. We don’t have any buyers, but we don’t really have any sellers either. So the most recent verified support low is 12622; that’s the key level to watch for next week. Can we break below it? But again, remember, there’s a Canadian holiday on Monday and, I believe, a US holiday on Thursday, July 4th. So you’ve got a considerable amount of economic data coming out, so it’s going to be very choppy. So the Pound I believe will come under a little bit more pressure, but the indicators, if looking at the neural index strength—now, this is interesting—the neural index is red, but the neural index strength is pointing up. That’s what you want to look for, a type of divergence, because the neural index strength gives us a window to see what the neural index is looking at inside of it, and it’s actually pointing up. So maybe a rebound on Friday, or excuse me, on Monday, and then we’ll see where we end up. Now, our F8 is pushing lower also; that level’s coming in at 12657. So we know where our resistance is and we know where our support is. But as you can see, if we lose the 126 level, that potentially could be a big problem. That could potentially open up the door to the 124-125 area, and if you get a hotter non-farm payroll number on Friday, that area would easily be tested.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen

Now, the USD/JPY : all eyes are on intervention from the Bank of Japan. But in my respectful opinion only, they tried the intervention, and this is what they got. So this is their mess, guys. The Yen is really taking a hit. So how much further can they push this before the Bank of Japan steps in? But even if they do at this point, I don’t think now they’re fighting a very powerful carry trade with the Fed refusing to cut. And again, the interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan and the Fed is substantial now at over 5%, I think, around 5% difference. So they’re not leaving this long trade. So the Bank of Japan has their work cut out, but this pair is going to be very, very volatile. I could see, regardless of the data, the market coming back down to our T cross long at 15874. If again we look at our F8 here, you can see that the buyers are consistently picking this up on a daily basis. But what you really want to do here, guys, is when this works the best is when you get either the long predicted of the T cross long and the daily predicted low, where they’re very close to each other, so that there’s no gap to fill here. So there’s a bit of a gap to fill on the T cross long but not a lot.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

Now, the AUD is benefiting. They’re starting to see a little bit of hotter inflation data too, but again, the 2% target is a made-up number, guys. That’s all I can tell you. Where the history of the 2% inflation target came from—not from any economic paper that I’m aware of—it came from the finance minister in New Zealand, and he just blurted it out one day and said, “Okay, well, we’re running really hot inflation at 16%,” I think it was in 1987 or 1988—you can Google it—and he said, “I think we’re going to go with a 2% inflation target.” But it wasn’t based on anything. So next thing you know, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada pick it up, and they said, “Okay, we’re going to go with 2% too.” Then the FOMC hires a Canadian, Ben Bernanke, and he turns around and says, “I think we’re going to go with 2% also.” So again, we can debate this up and down, but the reality is here is they’re likely all going to have to cut here, and when the US does it, the Dollar is going to take a hit. So they’re refusing to exit stocks, they’re refusing to exit gold longs, the metal long trades—that all helps the AUD , the equities, the commodities. So right now, that T cross long is 6646. You can see looking at this chart that there is significant resistance up here. The yearly opening price is 6812. We’re still negative on the year, but when the Dollar turns, this pair will be a very good buying opportunity, as will the NZD . And as you can see, the difference between—this is a question I actually got from last week. And if you guys want to email me questions, etradefx@gmail.com, I’m happy to answer those, any of your questions.

But the difference in what’s happening here—yes, that inflation data is why these two pairs are not running both above the VP T cross long.

Australian Dollar versus New Zealand Dollar

But your culprit, guys, is this one: AUD/NZD . And for the forex traders watching, this pair has become very attractive to me. Instead of trying to trade AUD/USD or NZD/USD all the time, I tend to now go after this one.

And as soon as we crossed over our T cross long, you can see that we started to advance. So in theory, you can buy AUD/USD and you can buy AUD/NZD as a dual trade because the NZD is the one taking the hit. But the indicators here—and to sweeten the pot a little bit—you can see the yearly opening price, how we basically rebounded right off that area. Then we crossed over our T cross long, and it led to a pretty substantial rally without worrying about how the US Dollar is affecting the NZD or the AUD . Like the AUD/NZD pair, guys, it’s made up of AUD/USD and NZD/USD . It’s a synthetic cross pair, and so we can take advantage of these cross pairs if we understand how they actually work and how the Dollar comes into play.

So we have a very, very full docket next week. We have, again, a holiday in Canada, a holiday in the US, I believe, on Thursday. So you’re going to see some real choppiness, but with that will come opportunity. So with that said, this is the CyberFusion5.0  Market Outlook for the week of July 1st, 2024.

Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

Okay, hello everyone, and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the CyberFusion5.0 Market Outlook for the week of June 24, 2024.

U.S. Dollar Index

Now, to get started this week, we’ll begin again with that very important US Dollar Index . Pretty much everything revolves around interest rates these days, so in our trading, the point of these presentations is not just to talk about technicals but also to bring fundamentals in because fundamentals drive the market in most cases, specifically in this case’s interest rates.

So last week, we looked at our Fed Funds Futures , and we’ll bring that back up so we can see that after the PMIs and some of the other very mixed data, there is only a 10% chance of a rate cut in July. When we move into September, that’s come down slightly to 65.9% probability of a rate cut, but November and December remain strong at 78% probability of a rate cut, and in December, we’re looking at 94.8%. So the wild card here would be September. But again, the Fed is, in my respectful opinion, getting backed into a corner. The data does not support higher for longer; it does not support holding at these rates basically, so we’ll leave that at that. But this brings it into perspective, the fundamental that we need to monitor each week. We can debate what the Fed should or shouldn’t be doing; that’s a separate argument, guys. What we need to focus on is the probabilities going forward, and when we look into January of next year, this is a pretty clear picture: January 98%, March 99%. So we always want to make sure that, if nothing else, we’re getting out in front of these moves.

So right now, the Dollar has responded to the PMIs being slightly higher. Nothing significant here. The indicators in VP are very, very mixed. Our MA diff cross is still warning that this move higher is likely not sustainable here, so we want to make sure we understand that we have significant verified resistance up to 105.74. This is the area to keep an eye on. Now, in most cases, the trend from Friday continues into Monday, and then on Tuesday, we see things reverse. But always remember, we are moving towards month-end, where the Dollar is predominantly strong anyway, so I would be looking for a little bit more dollar strength. But if anything, it would probably be the week after next where we see that dollar strength. So again, our MA diff cross is down.

Now, some had asked about the short term, the T cross short. So what you can do in your software is bring in any one of these you want to bring in, but just remember that shorter-term indicators very often produce false signals. As you can see right here, the short-term T cross short, there’s a crossover that took place there. So again, what I would strongly advise is that if you’re using the T cross short, one of the best ways to use that is gauging when the market is out of fair value. The further the short-term T cross short moves away from our anchor point, our T cross long, the less likely the market is going to continue higher. So right now, our T cross short could extend a little bit higher, but again, that’s not always indicative of a stronger trend. Very often, it’s showing us the exact opposite. So again, we look for it to move out of fair value like it did back here in April, and then we look to play the MA diff cross. But again, if your short-term bets are on the Dollar or on the long side, I would not dispute that, but the medium and long-term bets are definitely short against the Dollar .

Gold

So when we do a comparative into our Gold contracts, once again, you can see that gold responded to that data, but that’s only one data set, guys. But again, I will stress the importance of adding fundamentals to your technical trading; it’s a must actually. So again, when we look at Gold , China’s not the big player here for buying gold. India is, and India’s been buying it up heavily, and I don’t believe they’re going to stop. So right now, the structural bias of this is 2066, but the area that I’ve been discussing over the last several months actually is the quarterly opening price, which is the important one, 2233, which I believe represents a very good buying opportunity if we can get down into those levels. Right now, the indicators in VP are sitting at a potential breakout point to the downside, but we need the predicted RSI moving below 40 to signal we have downside momentum. But either way, I believe Gold will be contained by 2233, and that would be a buying opportunity. Again, we just need confirmation in the indicators. So once again, if you want to manipulate the triple cross, then you can certainly do that by adding a shorter-term indicator here, but we want to use that in conjunction with the main tools here. So right now, you’ve got a lot of choppiness with that short-term T cross long here, and again, this is a weekly outlook, guys, not a daily. We do look at tools like this, and I would encourage anybody using the VP software to look at the live training room that’s on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, where we get into short-term trading strategies. But that’s not what this presentation is; it’s a weekly outlook. That’s why we have the hard anchor point of the T cross long. That area now is 2355, but I believe that the data that came out this past week is only short-term data. We have Michigan confidence next week, I believe GDP, so there’s always data each week, but some data is very important, and some is not as important. So the PMIs have pushed Gold down a bit, but I don’t believe it will keep gold down for any length of time based on the fundamental that, again, from the Fed’s own words, rate cuts, there is no pathway to rate hikes. It’s higher for longer or cuts. That should keep Gold firm in the near term.

S&P 500 Index

Now, when we look at the S&P 500 once again, a pretty strong week, but when we look at the T cross long as our anchor point, if I add in the short T cross occasionally, I can bring this in for you guys if you want to see it. That’s not a problem. So the short-term T cross long up here, there’s a gap between these two levels: 5467.50 and 5385. That’s a significant gap. The predicted high for next week is sitting at, again, 54.87, and the predicted low at 54.41. But from the predicted low down to the T cross long, there’s a gap in price that needs to be filled, a corrective gap. Now, we can also use our F8, and this is one of my favorites. You can see that this has been a very good entry point on a daily basis, right? So for the start of the week, we’ve got pretty strong support at 5454 and our predicted low at 5441. But remember, we’ve got a gap to fill down to that T cross long.

Now, when we look at the S&P 500 going into next week, once again, we’re holding in there, but again, not a lot of gains up here, but it is a very strong move for the week. So we can see the SPYs and the S&P 500 is basically the exact same trade here. So when we look at that all-important S&P 500 , we’re still pushing gains higher, making all new highs, 5505 last week on the cash side. But the indicators are starting to turn somewhat negative here. Now, again, we’re looking at a gap to be filled. The predicted low is rather high for Monday. And again, when we look at that, connecting the dots between these levels, that’s a bit of a problem here. I believe we need to allow this market or this gap to be filled somewhat. That gap would be down to 5385. That’s the level we would look for a corrective move and then reassess if we want to buy into that level.

In my respectful opinion, the Dollar cycle plays a big part in this, where the Dollar strengthens in the last few days of the month. So that’s not next week but the week after. So I believe stocks can do well next week but not the week after, and that’s because of dollar buying largely. But I also believe the S&P and your equity traders are digging their heels in, saying that cuts are coming and they’re staying long the stock market. So I wouldn’t recommend fighting this very powerful trend because, again, we want to look at the primary fundamental trend. We want to look at the intermarket correlations and the intermarket technicals to decide in our trade, not just one of those three. And the fundamental and technical trend on the S&P is strongly up, so we would remain long the S&P with that in mind.

DAX

Now, our European equity markets again should be getting a bit of a boost here with that softer PMIs coming out of Europe. But once again, if we look down at the bottom here, we can see the DAX actually had a pretty good week, but we’re still negative, positive on the year but negative on the quarter and the month. So right now, our T cross long is used at 18,335. In order to buy this, we need to get above that. But I’ll discuss that further in a minute and how the Euro is affecting this.

Because in most cases, they’re either buying the Euro just like in the US, they’re buying stocks, or they’re buying the Dollar . In Europe, it’s not that much different; you’re either buying into the European equities or buying the Euro . In this particular case, I would argue that that’s getting a bit of a boost because of that Euro weakness and the Dollar strength. But for now, we have a clear reversal signal: the pink line over the blue line, the medium-term strength is weakening against the long-term strength, pointing that we’re at least going to move back up to the T cross long, and that’s 18335. We would need to get above that to confirm that we’re going to stay with the primary move up while above the current yearly opening price at 16828.

VIX

Now, the VIX is again being challenged on the current yearly opening price. It’s very important that we look at the VIX in our stock trading. Again, this is a broader market outlook, quickly covering all the major markets that are driving the underlying markets. If we’re buying stocks, we look for the S&P 500 to be higher. If we’re buying Gold , Gold stocks, or Gold miners, we look for Gold Futures up. If we’re buying Dollars , then we look for a stronger DXY . They’re all tied to the main futures contracts. So right now, the VIX continues to fail, and this is another great example of why the current yearly opening price, and not a rolling performance model, matters. We have the current yearly opening price to tell us the trend of the VIX . It’s still down, guys. Until we cross over the yearly opening at 15.01, the VIX remains bearish. I believe the VIX will rise when the Dollar strength kicks in towards the end of the month. That’s something we always like to be out in front of, not behind. That’s why we bring in the fundamentals of the Fed, the PMIs, and CPI, looking at broader data, not just one data set. So right now, there’s a slight upward bias for the VIX towards the end of the week.

Crude Oil

Now, when we look at light sweet Crude Oil , this trend continues to push higher. After what we’ve discussed with the current yearly opening price, we’ve crossed over the VP T cross long back on June 10th, and we’ve been moving higher. Now, we may have a bit of a problem as we’re approaching the current quarterly opening at 82.85. We have at least some corrective nature showing weakness in the software with that MA diff cross. You can see that our neural index is green, but the neural index strength is actually pointing down, suggesting maybe we’re going to take a little bit of a break in oil prices here. So if we do, our downside target level, our T cross long, will be 78.62. That’s the level we want to look for, guys, for a corrective move to potentially re-enter longs. But again, we’re firmly above the yearly opening price. We’ve had a test of the yearly opening price, which I pointed out several weeks ago as a buying opportunity. The same thing that put us into this trade short, guys, can be the same thing that takes us out of this trade, warning that we’re coming lower. Now, if you’re a longer-term oil trader, then I think staying in should be okay, but I want to get above 82.85. I still think it’s possible we can get to our $86 target by month-end.

Bitcoin

Now, with Bitcoin , Bitcoin is pulling back, remaining bearish from last week. Getting into summer trading is perfectly normal, but buying Bitcoin on a dip, the closer we get to mid-to-early October, is likely the next time we’re going to see a big breakout in Bitcoin . It occurs almost every year. So mid-September to early October, there’s a very clear seasonal pattern. So potentially a little bit soft between now and then, but again, the lowest verified zone we’ve got down here currently is about 60381. We’ll probably test that next week, and that’s the area I would keep a very close eye on. Our secondary support comes in at 56600. The software is warning that there isn’t a lot of downside here. We’ve got an MA diff cross that’s taking place, and the worst thing you could ever say about this indicator is it’s always early to the party, guys. So keep an eye on that if we see any odd pricing in Bitcoin . If you want to manipulate that a little bit, you can bring in the short T cross short. The further the T cross short moves away from the T cross long, the more likely a reversal is imminent.

Euro versus U.S. Dollar

Now, when we look at some of our major FX pairs for next week, the Euro is always at the top of that list because of its high inverse correlation to the Dollar Index , about 98% actually. So right now, you can see that I’ve left that on here. The further that blue line moves away, which is our T cross short, the more likely a pending reversal is coming. We do have an MA diff cross to the upside, but the Euro is structurally weak, and I wouldn’t disagree. The PMIs last week didn’t help it much, that’s for sure, but ultimately what’s happening to these other currencies is going to happen to the Dollar sooner rather than later. It may not be till August or September, but the closer we get to September, I believe the US data will deteriorate, and that’s a fundamental that cannot be ignored. So again, we’ll monitor things right now, but we are coming into a strong verified support low down here at 106.50 and about 106.02. I believe this area is likely to hold, or maybe a slight breakdown below it and then it reverses higher. Be very cautious of a bear trap down here.

British Pound

The same thing would apply to the British Pound . When we look at the British Pound for next week, again, we can see that we’ve got a bit of a problem. Once again, as we discussed in last week’s outlook, this yearly opening price is a stubborn area to break, but it’s broken to the downside again. But right now, our quarterly opening is coming in at 126.31 here, guys. Again, keep an eye on this particular level. We want to get back up above that quarterly opening to see if we can rechallenge the T cross long and the current yearly opening price. But 127.32 has proven to be very stiff resistance, a very tough level to hold for this pair. Ultimately, I believe we go higher, but that’s going to depend on the fundamental attached to that, which is interest rates from both the Bank of England and the Fed. But I believe the Fed and the Bank of England will both cut, guys, so you’ve got somewhat of a standoff between these central banks. We’ll see where this goes right now. Keep an eye on that for this week. The indicators are mixed, but they are pointing lower.

Swiss Franc

Now again, a surprise from the Swiss National Bank this past week, they’ve cut again, and the Fed is still yet to cut. This is why we discussed this, guys, so everyone understands that there are interest rate cuts and hikes going on in other countries and how it’s going to affect the US. The Swiss, even though they were the first to cut here, the currency remains very strong against the US Dollar . Once again, when we look at this, there’s many different ways we can manipulate this, but my view here is that when they cut, it’s a short-term move. We can see that that’s what’s happened here. It’s reversed back to our T cross long at 89.49. We would look for that area to potentially break and would open up the door to potentially up into this 90.21 level, 90.34, but then we have to get above our current monthly opening price. So even with a secondary cut from the Swiss National Bank, the currency remains very strong. We’ll watch these levels; the indicators suggest we’re going higher, but we want that predicted RSI above 60 to show that we’ve got upward momentum, and I don’t believe we do. If we do, it’s short-term as we gear up for additional cuts, but once again, we need to clear that level.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen

Now, when we look at the Dollar/Yen , the broader market remains heavily on guard for intervention here. Fundamentals matter, guys. It’s not just about levels and technicals. The underlying fundamental here is the Bank of Japan. If they intervene, it will be on a Sunday night for sure. It could be as early as this Sunday night, but that high at 16017 we are approaching yet again. I have never seen this pair at this level, and the central banks did it to themselves when they intervened prior to the Fed starting its rate hike cycle. Big mistake. We will see how this one plays out, but I would be very cautious of both a bull and a bear trap on this particular pair because this is 100% now a fundamental trade. If this carry trade starts to come unwound, it will come unwound very, very quickly. Caution is what I can advise.

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar

Now, the US/Canadian pair, again, the Canadian Dollar responding to both higher oil prices and strong global stock markets. If we think the direct market correlation here is if there’s going to be a corrective move lower on oil, that would mean US/Canada could go higher. The Bank of Canada has made it very clear with lots of cuts coming; that’s what they said. It’s nice to see that rationale because they should have cut a long time ago. Right now, we’ve got support down here at

136.34, and on the monthly and quarterly at 135.45, this area potentially could be a buying opportunity, a short-term buying opportunity. Structurally, if we’re talking fundamentals and interest rates, nothing has changed in Canada, but this is the power of intermarket correlations: stronger equity, stronger oil prices that support the Canadian economy, and a bank that’s openly stated they’re going to be cutting numerous times going forward, which should weaken that currency. We’ll monitor this right now, but be careful down here because the indicators, again, if you look at the neural index strength, it’s actually turning back up, not down. Be cautious of a bear trap down here.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

Ultimately, with the Aussie and the Kiwi , I believe both currencies will rise going into the third and definitely the fourth quarter of this year. For now, the Aussie is putting up a pretty epic battle, but you can see the way my charts are set up: my quarterly opening at 6520, my yearly opening price at 6820. We are sitting smack in the middle of this. The closer we get to 6520, the more attractive longs are going to be here, guys, because regardless of all the indicators and everything that’s discussed, we have held above the quarterly opening price on this pair the entire time. That actually is bullish, not bearish. I do anticipate a bit of a stop-loss hunt. I would look for longs potentially down between 6585 and 6520. I believe to be reasonable, but the indicators are saying in VP that we are going lower.

New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

The same thing is almost identical in the Kiwi . We’re trapped between 5980 and 6318. This is a bit of a dangerous area for either longs or shorts. I want to show this in these videos so you can see that this looks very similar to a median grid. A median grid is the high plus the low divided by two. When we look at this right now, it has an immediate bearish tone to it, but looking forward, not backward, because this is an outlook, not a recap of something that’s already happened, guys. We look for this area down here for potential longs as the data starts to back the Fed into a corner where it’s going to have to concede on these cuts. If we do end up getting a cut in September, from what I’ve seen from the Fed’s balance sheet and the Fed members, they’re pricing in two cuts this year, and I would actually be in agreement with that and maybe even three. Either way, 2025 is all about rate cuts. I believe the market, the closer we get to the fiscal year end of the US, which will be the end of September, then the Dollar is really going to struggle into the US fiscal first quarter between October 1 and mid-January.

With that said, this is the CyberFusion5.0 Market Outlook for the week of June 24, 2024.

Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

Okay, hello everyone, and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the CyberFusion5.0 Market Outlook for the week of June 17, 2024.

U.S. Dollar Index

To get started this week, we’ll begin with the Dollar Index , where we usually do, which is very, very important for Forex traders, equity traders, and commodity traders. We’ve come off a volatile week, the data again failing to support any kind of real aggressive moves from the FED . But let’s take a different approach to this this week. Now again, heated debates on Bloomberg, CNBC, and a number of different financial channels. But let’s look at this realistically from the FED fund futures perspective because this directly affects whether we’re buying or selling US dollars .

As you can see, I’m on the CME Group; all the heavy lifting is done here. This is not my opinion or somebody else’s opinion; this is what the interest rate traders are betting on. For July, you can see this column here: we have a mere 10% probability that the FED will cut, and 80% probability (89.7%) that there will be no change. But the important one to also look at, as I’ve repeated in most of these outlooks, is that there is no pathway to rate hikes. It’s off the table, the FED has now said. When we look out to September on the FED fund futures , we can see now there’s a 67.7% probability that interest rates will change; they will be cut. Only a 32.3% chance that there’ll be no change. Again, no hikes.

When we look at November, once again very interesting. When we start looking at it by the betting odds, right? 80% probability of easing, only a 19.5% probability that there’ll be no change. Again, zero probability of a rate hike. That is the most key point that I need to make. When we look at December, this increases to 96.2% with a probability of no change at 3.8%. Again, zero pathways to rate hikes.

So when we look at this, this updates in real-time every week and gives us a perspective that there is no pathway to rate hikes. That’s the main point there. The probability is the interest rate traders, as am I, are still betting on three cuts this year. The FED is saying it’s only going to cut once, but it also threw in that commonality of data dependency. So once we look at this, we are not just technical traders or intermarket analysis traders; we can’t ignore fundamentals of interest rates here, guys.

So when we look at this right now, the Dollar immediately has responded and has moved higher, but the data points again I’ll leave it alone, they’re not supportive of rates even higher for longer. So for next week, our T cross long will come in at 104.89. We have significant resistance, as I discussed last week, up into this 105.74 area. Again, we’ve come down with our predicted RSI hit this.

Now, once again, as I’ve said many, many times in these outlooks, this is a weekly outlook, guys, so I’m using the T cross long without the other short-term indicators because that’s what they are: short. The T cross short is a short-term indicator. Now what you can do, if you’re so inclined, you can go down to your triple EMA cross, and you can see that I removed the medium and the short. Now I could add the short if I wanted to, but again, that’s a very short-term indicator. You can use that for day trading, absolutely. But remember, whenever you go to short-term indicators, that probability increases of a false signal.

So when we have a hard anchor point using that T cross long, again, you can change it any way you like, but when you see right here there were multiple crossovers and it was a false signal. So the T cross long, the standard that I’ve talked about at the seminars and I’ve talked about in the VP live room. Now if you’re looking for short-term strategies, then please do feel free to sign up for the Vantage Point live training room Monday, Wednesdays, and Fridays where we do all these short-term using some of the short, medium, and long-term tools. But for a weekly outlook, we need to look at hard anchor points. And again, there are many different combinations that you can come up with here. I could take the TR cross long off altogether and just use the short term, but you can see it’s very, very choppy, extremely choppy, and it’s more difficult to find your stop-loss placement. So when I use the T cross long, because I’m going out for five days, guys, this is an outlook, not a recap of something that’s already happened. So I need to get a longer-term area to identify the retracement points and the stop-loss.

So 104.89, I believe this level will be tested again next week. The market will digest all of the data, will digest FED fund futures , what they think; they’re not in agreement with the FED any more than I am, and those numbers I’ve shown you. Then we look at the additional short, medium, and longer-term indicators on a day-to-day basis. But for now, the Dollar still has some life in it. But the point that I will gently make here is there is no pathway to rate hikes. That alone ultimately will be bearish for the Dollar . Now, that may not resonate for a few weeks, maybe a few months, but again, we’re looking forward, not backward, and the main thing is to identify that.

Gold

So when we look at Gold from the same standpoint, Gold is hanging tight, running right along our quarterly opening price at 2291. I would anticipate again that Gold traders will be gearing up for longs. Now, personally, I always buy Bitcoin in October and I always buy Gold in November. Can Gold rally before then? Yes, I believe it can because I believe that the incoming data will force the FED’s hand, which should push Gold higher ultimately. But for now, we are at a very, very interesting close here. You can see using the proper anchor points of the monthly opening price, based on price action, 2326 is the monthly opening price. And once again on Friday, we closed above that despite a strong Dollar .

The point that I’ll make is one of these two prices is not accurate, and either the Dollar is right or Gold is right. Now they both can move up and down together, but my view is the Dollar is the one that’s wrong, and ultimately it’s the one that moves lower and Gold moves higher with Bitcoin and equities. So for now, we just need to push through that T cross long, and again, this is one of the main reasons that the T cross long is used in a weekly presentation because we can identify our critical area. I don’t want to get caught up with short-term indicators here, guys. I could put a buy limit order at because I know that the T cross long, as you can see there, has been excellent shorts using that line. I don’t need a shorter-term indicator; that is my line in the sand. But in my respectful opinion, the strategy I’ve given is I want to close above the T cross long for two or three days in a row, and that will confirm I’ve got a shift in sentiment. And you can see it occurred right here: closed above it, closed above it, came back and retraced to it, and we buy. Boom. Again, very straightforward, not complex in any way, shape, or form, and that longer-term T cross long, again, is a line in the sand.

So I could put a buy limit order on here and say as soon as I clear this thing, a day trading strategy would be putting a buy limit order above 23, say 2335, right? Or I can wait and say, you know what, the Dollar does still have some life left in it. The direct inverse correlation between the two would have me on the sidelines until I get confirmation. But the indicators in VP are turning higher. The T cross, or excuse me, the neural index, the neural index strength, the predicted RSI is rising. I’ve got some action here on the MA diff cross. Once again, it does not point to Dollar strength; it points to Gold strength and potentially equities.

S&P 500 Index

So when we cross-reference this to the Stock Market , again, we’re stalling out up here, which is perfectly normal. We’ve got some indecision because of the FED. So the way we would look at this is we have multiple anchor points. We can use the critical T cross long at 5335. So what I’ve shown you guys in the past is that you can click on your F8, and that will bring up your long predicted. Those are the two core predicted moving averages I use, and you can see that it brings the predicted moving average right up here. But this is a long-term predicted moving average. Again, guys, getting caught up with short-term indicators is fine if you’re a day trader and you’re a scalper, but remember the probability of a false signal is greater when you go down to the shorter time frames.

If this was a one-day outlook, then that’s fine. I could use multiple short-term indicators I could bring in here, but it’s not; it’s a weekly. So again, remember I have discussed this multiple, multiple times, but just to clarify, that’s why they’re being used, because they’re relevant. It’s for one full week, not one day, not one hour, right?

So right now, yes, there are some signs of weakness, but the immediate level is 5395. Then we use our T cross long. If we break down below that, now I do expect some form of retracement, but I also believe, as I’ve shown you from a neutral standpoint, not my opinion or this guy’s opinion or that guy’s opinion—I’m not interested in debating this nonsense—the FED fund futures are betting against the FED. I also am betting against the FED because why would I bet for them given their track record, right? So if that’s the case, then yes, we get a pullback on equities, but ultimately the stock market would respond positively to the FED cutting. And again, it’s still pointing to three cuts this year, and I’m on board with that.

So right now, you can see our MA diff has broken away, and it’s showing weakness. So the additional price levels that we use, 5341, which is very close to the Vantage Point T cross long, 5297, these are core levels. We’re still above our monthly but our yearly opening price, 4745. This is still a bullish sentiment. Yes, we’re at all-time highs, and do I buy high and sell low? Yes, I do at times, absolutely. But I need a technical in-market reason and a fundamental reason to do so, and I believe those conditions are met here. Yes, the data could cause more distortion, but ultimately the outcome is there are not going to be any cuts. That’s positive for equities, guys.

So again, we’ll monitor the same levels. The VP indicators are slightly overextended, suggesting a minor retracement, and then we’ll reassess. But I would anticipate 5341 is a potential retracement.

Bitcoin

Now Bitcoin , again having a pretty good week, a lot of up and down, but we’re still not getting above that quarterly opening, and that’s my biggest concern right now: 70,885. I’d like to close above this and stay above it. But again, the next big push in Bitcoin , in my respectful opinion, only based on what I’ve seen over the last 10 years or so, October is a hot month for Bitcoin . So could we kind of trade sideways a little bit here? Yeah, we could, but I believe longs are building, and there’s nothing that the FED has said that has spooked me otherwise.

And the question here too is, can Bitcoin — Bitcoin has already grossly outperformed Gold . That doesn’t mean we don’t buy Gold ; it just means we keep a closer eye on Bitcoin . So usually, when I get a top forming like this, it’s actually not a top; it’s a top that’s about to be challenged. That key high that we’ve had most recently, 71,924, and then we’ve pulled back. So I would anticipate that sooner rather than later.

Uh, we should see Bitcoin extend. All I’m looking for is an MA diff cross, the line over the blue line, that classic contrarian signal to tell me that, look, here we go because the next move up on Bitcoin is likely to be substantial. There’s a lot of debate on this one too, guys, but the main number that consensus is around is $250,000 for Bitcoin potentially by the end of the year or next year. I certainly wouldn’t disagree with that because, again, it’s coming off a very, very strong year of last year, up over 150%, and we’re well up again over 60-70% this year, approximately. Don’t quote me on that, but there is strong buying here. Bitcoin again is a very funny asset class now because it correlates to what it feels like correlating to. It’s not a specific, ‘Oh, gold down, Bitcoin up,’ or vice versa. No, it can correlate; it can run on its own. It is not the same as these other asset classes.

So for now, minor a little bit more of a retracement potentially, but as soon as the market, I think, looks a little closer at the economic data, I think that they would prefer Bitcoin versus the US dollar .

Light Sweet Crude

Now, when we look at light sweet crude going into next week, another key market that we would monitor here is, again, we’re coming directly off the yearly opening price, guys. We did, and again, short-term traders, we did this in the Vantage Point live training room using the shorter-term indicators and then combined it with the current yearly opening price. That yearly opening price at 71.78, I also discussed it here on this weekly outlook because, again, it’s a weekly outlook, guys, not a daily, not a monthly, a weekly.

So as soon as we approach the yearly opening price, which we’ve already done this year, which I talked about back in February, is another excellent buying opportunity off of that yearly opening price. Then we look for the shorter to medium-term indicators to confirm that we’ve got a reversal. As you can see right here, well, guys, we have the exact same signal that mirrors what happened back in February. This is absolutely one of my favorite trade setups, also in the Forex market, but the oil is correlated to a number of different Forex pairs or Forex currencies. Excuse me, the Canadian dollar , the British pound , very interesting stuff that the pound has a high correlation to oil contracts like the cash. But you can see the exact same contrarian signal combined with the exact same level, and it repeats itself.

So again, it’s a tough call to make because we broke that 76 level, but ultimately I’ve got that backup level of the yearly open, the current yearly open. Again, guys, if we go back 30, 60, 90 days, you’re moving the goalposts with a rolling performance model. I used them 15, 18, 20 years ago and I just gave up. I need the current; I’m not concerned with what went on last year. I need to know where am I in the current calendar year. Am I bullish or bearish on this? I am bullish on oil absolutely as long as I’m above the yearly opening price at 71.78. So that’s a critical level sitting there, and we’re coming off that.

Now again, why we use the T cross long is you can see that every three days in a row, good long trades off of that T cross long, right? So, and again, it’s impossible to script something like this because this trade setup is discussed each week using the T cross long. So we go up, we break through it, we come back to it three days in a row, 77.30, right? So let’s say I took this off, I went down here to the triple EMA cross, and I bring in the short-term crossover. I can add that in there if I so choose, but when I bring that in, that may cause some confusion, right? So right there, it’s coming back up, but that signal is confirmed over in this area where actually we’re buying it over here on the MA diff cross. Then I’m going to take profit going into the T cross long, and then I’m going to reset longs as long as I’m holding above my line in the sand, which is the T cross long. If I remove the T cross long, what would you get? Well, you may get a distorted signal. So if I took that off and I only use the short term, then, well, you could try and use that for day trading. I wouldn’t be opposed to it, but I absolutely want that T cross long as my backup. It’s been demonstrated over and over again how effective it is.

Because again, if you took the Warren Buffett approach versus a day trader’s approach, which one’s more profitable? Buffett’s more profitable. He looks for value in his stocks. He doesn’t necessarily buy high and sell low. He looks for value and buys where that value is. So there’s value three days or three—well, I would argue four days in a row of last week. You’re buying every single day off that T cross long. So we’re using a longer-term tool for shorter-term trading. That’s the way you want to look at it, guys.

DAX

So on the European side, how do things look over with the DAX ? Well, guys, the Euro is going to struggle a little bit, as will the DAX , and that’s because of the European elections. So again, we can’t just look at levels and technicals and intermarket technicals; we also have to apply fundamentals to our trading. So the answer is that this is probably a buying opportunity. I anticipate in the weeks ahead, the global equity markets will turn again, and the DAX I think could be a good spot to look for longs. But again, 16,828, I believe we can come down further because the elections are going to be volatile. We’ll see what outcome—I think I know the outcome of that, but we’ll see. But for now, they’re in trouble, and that’s largely because of that fundamental, right?

And also, what’s very interesting here, guys, is that it’s also affecting the Euro , and they assume things will be negative because of a change in government, where I think it may actually be positive, to be perfectly blunt. But we’ll let the people in Europe decide and France decide these elections. But the Euro is going to be volatile because of this. In most cases, you’ve got either the DAX going down and the Euro going up, but they’re both going down. And that, again, is a fundamental causing that. That will separate, and then you will have either stocks up or the Euro up; usually it’s not both. But again, when we look at the VIX , we can make a better assessment.

Volatility Index ($VIX)

The VIX is back challenging that T cross long. This tells us, okay, I’m not ready to buy the VIX yet because my line in the sand again is this T cross long. So there’s a short there every single day, over and over and over again. So I don’t need to put the T cross short on here and cause any confusion. All I need to do is say, okay, my yearly opening price is at this level. I’m hitting into this T cross long, and yes, I will buy this when I hold above the T cross long and I break through the yearly opening price. I would respectfully submit that that is unlikely but possible. And what’s going on in Europe right now would technically fuel that.

But there’s been a war in Europe, there’s a war in the Middle East, there’s war, war, war, and it’s not really putting much of a dent in any of these global equity markets. But it took an election to send the DAX lower. So again, I don’t think that it’s going to stay down for too, too long. But once again, the VIX —keep a very close eye on it, and there is a buy signal on the VIX , potentially a stronger one. We see our neural index strength, predicted differences, and we’ve got momentum building with a predicted RSI, the 60/40 split, and a nine-period predicted RSI, not a 14, guys. So that’s saying, look, we’ve got momentum on this VIX that’s building. So keep a very, very close eye on that.

Euro versus U.S. Dollar

Now, with the Euro going into looking at some of the Forex pairs this week, the Euro is probably going to come under still a little bit of pressure. But you can see that it mirrors the DAX chart. They’re not wanting DAX —European equities, they’re not wanting the Euro . Whenever you have political unrest like this, this is very often the outcome. But again, in my respectful opinion only, we could see a buying opportunity. Our recent low, the verified resistance low, is 1.0602. I believe we will hit that next week. Be careful around this area and watch your MA diff, the pink line over the blue line, very, very closely. Okay? And what we can also do is click on our F8 and bring our support level or our resistance level now. A break of 1.0761 will confirm a reversal. But again, the bar—the Euro is still very bearish on the year at 1.1038. So looking for matching your predicted high of the day to either your T cross long or your long predicted is a very, very effective tool. Because again, if we have a big gap between our predicted high and either one of the two predicted moving averages that are used in this weekly outlook, then you want to wait and let it rise higher because chances are they’ve got to fill a gap here.

U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc

The US Swiss Franc , again, we could see some buyers come in here, but the line that I drew in here from last week remains in play. Multiple verified—you have three verified support lows building here, so a long trade is not unreasonable. But the indicators in VP, number one, again, we’re below our T cross long, that’s coming in at 0.8993. The indicators are negative. We’ve got our medium-term crossover that’s coming up to the zero line, but it’s not breaking through it. We need to get through it. We’ve also got the yearly opening price now coming in at 0.8410. Is that in play this week or this month? Probably not. We do have the Swiss National Bank that’s going to cause some more volatility. We’ll see if they carry that dovish tone like they did last month. But even with that dovish tone last month, the currency still strengthened, guys. Once it sold off, it immediately started gaining strength again. So, again, watch your T cross long. In order to buy this thing, we need a reason to, right? So if we click on our F7, right now we can’t get a clean signal on the crossover, so it requires a bit of patience. But again, if we look at the F8, then we can say, okay, you can see that, excuse me, we broke down on Wednesday below it, we came back, closed right on it on Thursday, and then Friday we sold off again. So this is F8 on your control panel. So again, you can use short, medium, long terms, whatever you want, but these are two that have performed very well in the AI testing with the neural networks. That’s why I use them, to clarify. But again, I have discussed this many, many times in many presentations. But just a reminder, that is the importance of those two predicted moving averages, with multiple examples of showing that over the years of doing this.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar

Now, the Pound Dollar for next week, once again, this yearly opening price is a tough nut to crack here. We had a good couple of—well, we’ve had more than a—we’ve had a couple of weeks above it, but it’s just struggling here. And you can see that we had a big push-up on Wednesday, but then on Thursday, we’re in trouble. Now the 1.2631, once again, that was coming in at the quarterly opening. Keep a very close eye on this level next week. We need a breakdown. We’ve got our breakdown below our T cross long, but I believe the market is going to start to continue to digest the FED’s comments. The FED is being challenged all over the place here, right? So again, we’ve got the Bank of England next week. It’s going to be choppy. We know that they’re going to be prepping for rate cuts. So if the FED is the only one that’s not cutting, it’ll be interesting. So I anticipate some bearishness again in the British Pound based on whatever the Bank of England is going to do next week, which I believe they’re going to talk up a cut for August. That’s my view. Maybe I’m wrong, we’ll see. But either way, it’ll carry a bearish tone. The indicators on VP are suggesting momentum is building, but watch 1.2631 very closely. But the immediate pressure on Monday and Tuesday on this pair will likely be to the downside.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen

Now, the Dollar Yen , once again, just simply nobody willing to buy the Yen here. And the Bank of Japan did nothing to strengthen the Yen either. So right now, hard to believe that this is still up at the 157 level, but the carry traders are a stubborn group. They’re not letting go of this, and I don’t blame them. There’s a big interest rate differential between the FED and the Bank of Japan, and that, by definition, is the carry trade. Long the Dollar , short borrow money and short the Yen . So probably some more upside. The only thing, again, I’ll warn everybody: if the Bank of Japan pulls a stunt, it will be Sunday night. They are notorious for squeezing as much as they can out of any verbal intervention. So right now, still carries a bearish tone. The VP indicators are very bullish here. But again, you can see that T cross long, and that’s because it’s a week out, guys. I like to give you that this level so you’re not chopped out in Monday, Tuesday, or Thursday trade because you’ve got a Monday, Tuesday reversal, profit-taking on Thursday, and that’s where people are getting stopped out with these short-term indicators. So it’s simply for your benefit. Use it, don’t use it, your call on that. But I’ve got to give you the proper levels. So the T cross long, 156.57, if you’re a buyer of this pair, that’s where you’re buying, guys. And the indicators do support it, but it’s a very high-risk long up here in my respectful opinion only.

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar

Now, the US Canadian pair , once again, stalling out at the level discussed last week. We’ve got these verified resistance highs up here. Once again, quick note from the fundamental side: there was no confusion from the Bank of Canada or no mincing words from Tiff Macklem. There are going to be many more cuts coming. So if we think back in time to when the FED said he’s not hiking, ‘inflation is transitory,’ which I agree with that statement. It was transitory; it still is transitory as far as I’m concerned. But that’s neither here nor there. The Bank of Canada was way out in front of the FED, and then the FED conceded that the inflation is stronger than he thought. So if the Bank of Canada is cutting and they’re talking about multiple cuts, then that tells me that the FED is behind the curve again. So again, that’s just my opinion, but that’s why I wanted to show the FED fund rates. So you decide from that, guys. That’s not my opinion; that’s the FED funds. They’re pricing in. Are you staying at the same rate? Are you hiking or are you cutting? The only thing on the horizon, guys, is either higher for longer or cutting, where the Bank of Canada is, again, way out in front of the FED. So from that standpoint, I believe we could see some Canadian Dollar strength. We need equities moving higher, and we’ve already confirmed that oil is doing well. It just needs to continue to advance towards or over $80 a barrel. Regardless of all these interest rates, guys, that intermarket correlation of oil and equities will help the Canadian Dollar .

And maybe, just maybe, the market views that the FED is wrong and the Bank of Canada has got this right, and they’re going to move the economy in the right direction. That’s possible. So right now, I wouldn’t rule out shorts up here, but we need a reason to short this. If we are right here, we’ve got one: the MA diff cross, the pink line over the blue. This tells me the medium-term strength or the medium-term trend is weakening against the longer-term trend, right? So if that’s the case, then we’ve got our sell points probably just above 1.38. If we can get back up to 1.38, our most recent high this year, 1.3846, I believe you’ll have sellers camped out between these two verified zones. So keep a very close eye on that.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

The Aussie and the Kiwi once again, they’re putting up a good battle here, but they’re still firmly below their yearly opening price. We need a sustained break of the T cross long, and I believe ultimately that will be to the upside. So watch your downside levels. The quarterly opening price next week is still bearish indicators, but you’ll notice we’re at 40.3 on the predicted RSI. We don’t have a lot of momentum building to the downside. Any turn in the equity markets to the upside will benefit the Aussie and the Aussie cross pairs. The same thing would be applicable to the Kiwi , and again, when we look at that New Zealand currency right now, it’s putting up a little bit better of a fight than the Aussie is. But they’re both struggling, both indicators are weak. Neither one is showing excessive momentum to the downside.

New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

So for the Aussie , the CAD , the New Zealand to really sell off next week, you would have to have a significant crash in the equity markets, in my view. And I don’t think we’re there yet. Again, be very careful next week. We’ve got retail sales, we’ve got some bank announcements— Swiss National Bank , I believe, the Bank of England —so there’s going to be volatility there. But keep an eye on your global stock markets because if they recover, as a Forex trader, then that’s your cue to start buying the Aussie , the Kiwi , and selling dollars.

So with that said, this is the CyberFusion5.0 Market Outlook for the week of July 17, 2024.

Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

Okay. Hello everyone, and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the CyberFusion5.0 Market Outlook for the week of June 10, 2024.

U.S. Dollar Index

Now, to get started this week, we’ll begin with the Dollar Index . We’re coming off the non-farm payroll number on Friday, so just a quick look at some of those numbers here so everybody has a better idea of what’s going on with this labor market. The U6 clearly is going the wrong way. Now, there are positive attributes about that report, but there are quite a few negatives also. The main one that’s caught my attention is the U6 number staying higher, and now we’ve broken that psychological unemployment number of 3.9%, going to 4%. In most cases, that usually leads to dollar weakness.

Now, we’ve had a big spike up in thin, liquid markets clearing the T cross long, but as you can see, there are significant headwinds above the 105 level with these verified zones coming in at or about 105.18. As a licensed CTA, I do carry a Series 3 Commodity Futures and a Series 34. It’s important to look at what is actually going on here. The markets reacted to this, but again, the numbers are not as clear as they might appear to be. Very often, the dollar sells off the week after the non-farm payroll number regardless of what it is because the real dollar buying has already occurred.

So, a very choppy week last week. There was a lot of chatter about the interest rates. The Bank of Canada has sent a very clear message to the market: they cut, and Tiff Macklem has said very clearly that there are many more cuts coming. The ECB has cut, and they’ve said to the Fed that basically it was a very hawkish cut from the ECB, saying they’re not doing anything until the Fed makes up its mind what it’s going to do. Then, Jean-Claude Trichet, the former ECB head, was interviewed and said he’s unclear why the Fed hasn’t cut already.

So again, we talk about this briefly each week because it’s all about interest rates when it comes to the next move on oil , on gold , but on currencies and even the equity market . Right now, we would look for if the dollar has any life and it can move higher here. We must stay above 104.67. But on a side note, my monthly projected targets have already—well, they haven’t been met quite yet, but about just over the 105 area is about it for the month. So, we’ll see how the market responds once they’ve had a chance to look deeper into that labor report. Very often, once they look closer at it, the dollar loses its shine somewhat, so to speak. So be careful. I would anticipate the dollar rally will continue on Monday into part of Tuesday, and that’s where you want to be careful. The indicators are mildly bullish here, but we have only a short-term crossover. This is this blue line, which means a crossover in the short term has occurred. But in the MA diff, this is a good warning sign which I talked about last week, and I’ll talk about it again in a moment here. That is saying we’re correcting higher, but again, we’ve got to watch these areas up here. If we can’t get past this, then buying EUR/USD , buying GBP/USD —these trades are still valid, which again I’ll talk about in a moment.

Gold

Now, when we look at gold for the coming week, gold backed away, but once again, as I had discussed previously, gold usually runs out of buyers around midday. Yes, I’m fully aware that China is buying gold, but am I going to buy gold because China is? No, I’m going to buy gold based on the affirmation levels and the signals from the VP software just to confirm whether we’re going to continue seeing buying. Now, I do believe that gold will rebound here. You can see that gold has reacted to that non-farm payroll number, but again, we need a couple of days for this to digest to see how the institutions and the bigger players are going to react to this. Gold has had a push lower, but we are firmly above our quarterly opening and yearly opening price, and I believe we could have more of a risk-off scenario brewing here as tensions between the US and Russia are picking up. My understanding is there are several warships being pulled into Cuba as early as in the coming weeks, and a nuclear submarine. So, I think that heightened tension may not only help the dollar, but it may help gold here too.

So remember, we can’t just look at levels and technicals and things like that. We have to discuss fundamental events that are occurring all around us, and we want to marry the two together. I believe gold will hold above 2233, and I believe it to be a reasonable buying area. However, I want the indicators on board, and I believe the indicators will start to roll back to the upside by the middle of next week. This is an outlook, not a recap of something that’s already happened in the previous trading week. We will monitor these levels very closely, but I don’t feel that gold is done just yet, though it is carrying that bearish sentiment after that payroll number.

S&P 500 Index

Now, when we look at the equity markets going into next week, that risk-off scenario I’ve discussed will see if it goes anywhere. I thought I would mention it because it is a fundamental aspect. When we look at equities right now, we’re holding above our quarterly opening price and our monthly opening price, but more importantly, that is intersecting with our T cross long coming in at 5283. As long as we’re holding above 5283 and our quarterly and monthly opening prices, that gives us that bullish bias in the equity markets. I believe that the Fed will be forced into cuts later this year. It could be one, it could be three, or it could be none. It’s possible, but as I’ve stated week after week, the data is catching up to the Fed. One thing with that labor report is the downward revisions. Remember, the U3 is just a household survey number. The broader unemployment data has good and bad pieces to it, but again, I think equity market traders are looking for the Fed to cut, and they believe that he’s going to, so they are staying long in the equity market.

We can identify a very clear level, and that is our T cross long. We can follow that up with a quarterly opening, much like what I’ve just shown you with gold at 5257. These are price-based tools, and right now equities are positive on the quarter, gold is positive on the quarter. That’s the way we would look at it. The indicators are relatively neutral, but I believe that stocks will rebound when the market has had a chance to digest all of that labor report.

Bitcoin

Now, when we’re looking at Bitcoin for next week, once again, Bitcoin is really on a tear. You can see that we came right down to our T cross long, but this occurred earlier in the week, and we’ve rallied directly off the T cross long and the weekly opening price at 67720. When I have the monthly opening, the weekly opening, and the T cross long intersecting in that area, it provides an excellent entry point, a value-based entry point. When we’re looking at investing or trading, we’re always looking for value. That’s why we use products like Vantage Point, to show us if something is in or out of fair value. The market decided fair value is the T cross long, and Bitcoin has extended higher. This green level up here, the quarterly opening at 70885, is the level we need to push above. If we do, we will likely get our breakout higher. Bitcoin is clearly outperforming gold; there’s no comparison between the two. Gold can still move lower, and Bitcoin can extend higher; that is still a very strong possibility. Some big numbers are being forecasted for Bitcoin, 250,000. I don’t know if we’ll get there or not, but we need to deal with the immediate levels, not worry about the future too far ahead because a lot of things can happen in the meantime. Still bullish here, but it’s a little bit soft. You can see that once we came up and hit our quarterly opening, we’ve been stalling above that particular area. We retraced back down to the T cross long, and we’re holding there for now.

Light Sweet Crude Oil

When we look at light sweet crude oil , it’s another great example of applying the current yearly opening price. If we’re looking at rolling performance over the last 5 days, the last 30 days, the last 90 days, we’re not seeing the bigger picture. You can see that light sweet crude oil rallied off the yearly opening price right at the beginning of the year. We retraced back to it on February 5th, and we’ve had an even stronger rally. In the Vantage Point live training room the last few weeks, we’ve been targeting the 71 area. You can see we’ve come very close, with a low of 7248, and oil has had a significant rebound. It’s targeting the T cross long at 7708, which is our obstacle for next week.

We need to get above that level. Again, as I’ve stated previously, in most years, gas prices, oil prices, and pump prices at the pump go up and they feed these types of contracts a seasonal pattern. The indicators here on oil are bullish. We’ve got our MA diff cross here that is warning us that we’re extending, but what I want to point out with this MA diff cross down here is it’s showing a corrective move back up. We’ve got our yearly opening price to buy from, and then we have our upside target. However, we would need these lines crossing the zero line to tell us that we’ve got a crossover. That’s what we’re looking for, but the immediate resistance area is the T cross long at 7708. I would not disagree that oil does carry a slightly bearish tone to it but offers an excellent buying opportunity provided you have the current yearly opening price as a guideline.

DAX

Now, when we look at our European equity markets with the DAX , again, a hawkish hike didn’t really push the European equities. I was very surprised to see Lagarde kind of take a bit of a shot at J Powell, saying, “We’re not doing anything until you make your move.” The European equity markets didn’t really like that comment too much because they were looking for a dovish ECB and they didn’t get it, so their equity markets backed off a little bit. You guys are still looking okay. We just need to stay above this T cross long here, and that number for next week is 18,551. However, I suspect it could come under pressure because now it’s a wait-and-see game. What is the Fed going to say next week? It’s going to be choppy because you’ve also got the US CPI next week, which could give us some direction. Always remember, with that US non-farm payroll number, it’s a lagging number. It’s the previous month, and we have already seen that the revisions are showing the unemployment rate is ticking up. I believe the revisions will get even stronger as we go forward and that the labor market is nowhere near as strong as what we’re being told based on the Fed’s or the BLS’s own numbers.

Volatility Index

Globally, we want to make sure we’re looking at the VIX . The VIX staying very negative is important. Again, we’ve got our MA diff cross right on the T cross long, and that is what would allow us to stay in our S&P 500 , NASDAQ , or even individual stock trades because the VIX is still pointing down. If the VIX is down, our global indices or at least the US indices should be up. When we look at that MA diff cross and we look at it again, just as a reminder, this is an outlook, not a recap of something that’s already happened. When I discussed this last week, I used First Solar as an example. To clarify, doctors, lawyers, airplane pilots, they don’t buy high and sell low and make up in volume, or at least not my direct client base. They take the Warren Buffett approach and look for value. I am certainly not saying that First Solar is not a good long trade or a buy. I’m saying that the Vantage Point indicators are warning that this is not the time yet to buy. Our MA diff cross has taken place and we’ve dropped 6%. When I discussed this last week, we’ve dropped 2.98%. We did have some mild buying here, but you can see that now you have two verified zones that have formed up at this high of 285. If we’re going to buy high, then we need to clear this level and then use 285. If we did buy high, just remember, this stock was at this price back in 2009, and then it was down for about 15 years. Again, everyone is free to trade how they want, but buying high and selling low, like GameStop, there’s many examples of how disastrous that methodology can be.

Do I buy high or sell low? Yes, I do at times, but it has to be with that Warren Buffett approach of value. If there is value in buying high, then I will. This stock is bullish, but I just wanted to point out that our retracement or if I was willing to buy First Solar, then I would look at 250, which is our cross long, or I would click on my F8 and say, “Okay, well, wait a minute. I’ve got 269.09. Maybe that area there is pretty good.” So we can identify two specific areas. But as you can see, the MA diff cross which I discussed last week has progressed to a medium-term crossover. If I click on my F7, you can see that the bearish sentiment is starting to build. This is simply to show you guys how to alternate strategies that are very much applicable to all the given markets.

Euro versus U.S. Dollar

When we look at some of our main Forex pairs, again, the EUR/USD pair, this is a dollar index trade. When we look at it right now, the euro has responded negatively, but it actually responded positively to the ECB’s hawkish cut. Now, we’ve broken down below our T cross long at 1.0834. My prediction would be that the euro will sell off further on Monday and maybe even part of Tuesday. Be very cautious continuing to sell because I believe all eyes are going to be on the Fed, and I believe the Fed is going to maybe carry a little bit of a dovish tone and warm the markets up to the idea of a rate cut. We’ll see. Again, we need to talk about these fundamentals. It’s not about being right or wrong; it’s about discussing fundamentals with the key levels, and the interest rates are always a fundamental that we need to monitor.

Once again, when we look at the setup of the EUR/USD pair, 1.0793 is the quarterly level I want to stay above by the end of next week. If we don’t, that sets a bearish tone for the euro. The indicators are warning that we’ve got crossovers going off, but the fundamental that caused this was the non-farm payroll number. Is that data sustainable to keep the pressure on selling the euro? I don’t believe it is, but I will monitor this very closely. Fundamental events can cause distortion in price; it doesn’t necessarily mean that will continue. We’ll monitor the key level.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar

GBP/USD , again, in the Forex market, we’re either buying or selling US dollars. The dollar index is paramount to keep your eye on if you’re a Forex trader. Right now, a very interesting setup with GBP/USD: we’ve got our T cross long at 1.2714 sitting right near the current yearly opening price of 1.2732. We need to get back up above this level and stay above it if we’re going to buy. This is all a significant amount of congested resistance up here that we need to be very mindful of. I could see us maybe getting a little bit of a push down to the quarterly opening, which would be 1.2631, and in my respectful opinion, that would be a buying opportunity.

U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc

The USD/CHF , again, the Swiss franc was one of the first banks to go off with rate cuts, and that did hurt the currency temporarily. However, as you can see, the Swiss franc has rebounded on their GDP numbers and a few other issues. Right now, we’ve got a newly formed verified support low coming in at around 0.8885. We’ve got a considerable amount of visible support stacking up in a verified zone at 0.8894. The indicators, there is the classic MA diff that I showed you last week with First Solar, and you saw the outcome. Again, this is an outlook, not a recap of something that already happened. I warned you in advance on how to use the Vantage Point software for reversals or corrective moves. Well, this is showing the same: a corrective move. Our target would be back to the T cross long at 0.9026. That’s the area we would target, and then we would reassess once we get up there. This could go the other way by Tuesday or Wednesday next week if the market determines that the labor market is not exactly what that report suggested.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen

When we look at the USD/JPY , the carry trade is still very much on here. It’s probably one of the most stubborn carry trades I’ve seen in 30 years, and they’re just not leaving it. Right now, our monthly opening and our quarterly opening at 151.32, we’re holding in there. However, I believe this could come unwound on a risk-off scenario, so we’ll monitor this pair. It is showing a buy signal; the software is showing a buy signal for next week, but I would be very cautious with this. 157.30 is the monthly opening price, and if the market feels that a risk-off scenario is coming, then they could move into the yen or the Swiss franc. Those are two alternative currencies that they will move to. Be very cautious with this particular pair.

Canadian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

For next week, the Canadian dollar : we’ve got our rate cut, but it was a very dovish cut. If we look back to when the Fed wasn’t hiking, when the Fed said, “Okay, inflation is transitory,” the argument here for me would be, well, the Bank of Canada was one of the first ones to hike. They’ve now cut, and is the Fed lagging behind the Bank of Canada again? I believe it is because, again, the head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, was very clear in his statement that more cuts are coming. Canada is the US’s biggest trading partner and vice versa, so what happens there in the US will often happen to us. I believe, again, that the Canadian dollar will take the brunt of this initially, but I also believe it will rebound on higher oil prices. If we get stronger equity markets, that’s the inter-market correlation. Keep an eye on your S&P 500, keep an eye on your oil contracts. That could still indirectly support the Canadian dollar. If and when the Fed does finally decide and say, “Look, I’m getting ready to cut here, and it’s coming next month or the month after,” then that would trigger broad dollar weakness.

That’s what we would be looking for in the weeks and months ahead. But it’s anybody’s guess right now what’s going through his head. Just be aware that it’s a big deal, a very big deal in these particular markets. We’re still bullish well above our T cross long, but we have significant verified resistance up to about the 1.3846 area. The immediate resistance at these verified zones is coming in around 1.3750, with staggered verified resistance along the high at 1.3785. That’s where I believe your sellers are going to come out, probably as early as mid to late next week.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

Now, the Aussie and the Kiwi —again, not a lot of buyers are coming in for the Aussie, and that payroll number has influenced this. The beauty of Forex trading is that you can have the same trade every single day using the Vantage Point T cross long. Every one of these trades was a very good buy. The one thing to note is that I don’t sell low and I don’t buy high in the currencies. Whenever I have a big long bar down like that, I can guarantee you we’re going to retrace at least 50% of this bar next week or potentially by late Monday or early Tuesday. It would take a significant risk-off scenario to change that.

For now, we are above our quarterly opening at 0.6520. I believe we will get down there, but I also believe that could be a buying opportunity. We’ll wait and let the market digest that payroll number.

New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

That will also affect the Kiwi (New Zealand dollar), which is holding its ground a little better. As I’ve shown you in the past, Aussie/New Zealand is your culprit. They’ve been selling Aussie/New Zealand, which indirectly strengthens New Zealand/US to some degree. Now, I’m seeing signs of a potential reversal here once again using the current yearly opening price at 1.0781. Once we clear that, we go to our T cross long at 1.0830 and will reassess if we can break through that level. This will also indirectly tell us what to do with that Aussie/US pair.

On a side note, next week will be very volatile again with the US CPI and the Federal Reserve. Hopefully, we’ll get a clearer picture from the fundamental side of where we’re going. With that said, this is the CyberFusion5.0 Market Outlook for the week of June 10, 2024.